Guoxin Securities: AI, gaming, and e-commerce going overseas, and marginal takeout mitigation are key variables, focus on the Internet giants' overseas business
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that looking ahead to 2026, it is necessary to focus on the progress of Internet giants' overseas business. Under the AI development trend, domestic cloud vendors and game makers face good opportunities to grow overseas, compounded by the upgrading of high-quality domestic supply chains. E-commerce platforms are also an important growth direction to supplement weak domestic demand.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
In retrading history, it is difficult for Hong Kong stocks to break away from dollar liquidity and macro factors
The performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index was relatively weak in Q4 over the years, and the next year's Q1/Q2 will experience recovery again. Therefore, the current pressure on the Hong Kong stock market is mainly related to liquidity and pessimistic macroeconomic expectations. Furthermore, the takeout war started by the three giants Meituan, Ali, and Jingdong in 2025 may enter a stage of marginal contraction in investment in 2026, which is an important influencing variable on the cash flow and profits of the three platforms.
Ali: AI full-stack self-developed manufacturer, focusing on it for 26 years. 1) The Qianwen Model continues to increase in the global model market share, and the accumulation of open source communities drives Alibaba Cloud's overseas growth; 2) the AI end side cooperates with Apple to increase cloud business growth; 3) model layer monetization due to downstream agents and application volume accelerates growth; 4) the pace of launch of self-developed chips and driven by profit margins.
Tencent: The advertising business continues to maintain a rapid growth level in the context of AI empowerment, while gaming overseas is an important increase. In 2025, the bank observed a marked acceleration in Tencent's overseas games. The country continued to export high-quality industrial-grade productivity support, and cooperation with overseas studios was further deepened. At the same time, along with the improvement of AI's overseas marketing channels, Tencent's international game growth in '26 may be an important highlight.
Meituan: Looking back at the takeout war in 25 years, subsidies are the key to affecting short-term order volume growth, but in the long run, they compete for financial strength and operational capacity. The focus is on tracking subsequent changes in the competitive situation. If the upward trend in marginal share continues or promotes a new round of market interpretation.
Baidu: Kunlunchip's listing plan has been announced, and asset revaluation in the context of AI is an important story. The focus is on the progress of Kunlun Core's listing and the progress of UE transformation in the autonomous driving business.
Kuaishou: AI video is a scarce target, and the domestic model gains more global market share through a cost-effective path, focusing on tracking subsequent revenue progress.
Risk warning: Macroeconomic fluctuations, downstream demand falling short of expectations, risk of core technology upgrades falling short of expectations, intensifying competition under rapid AI iteration and equalization, affecting cloud business profit margins.