Damo's latest judgment: In 2026, Korean semiconductors will not look at production expansion and “utilization rate”, consumables and equipment will be on the cusp

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that in 2026, the Korean semiconductor value chain will enter a growth cycle driven by capacity utilization as the core. As the production capacity of advanced process fabs becomes saturated, the profit leverage of the industrial chain will shift to the field of consumables, materials and service-intensive equipment closely related to the processing intensity of a unit wafer, and will become the core investment theme of the industry throughout the year.

A team of analysts led by Ryan Kim said that the key influencing variable in the 2026 semiconductor value chain has moved from the traditional capital expenditure cycle to the actual capacity utilization rate of advanced logic processes. Although the commissioning of new fabs such as the Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US) P4 plant and SK Hynix M15X plant will still be an important catalyst in the storage field, wafer operating rates for advanced processes below 5 nm are gradually returning to normal levels after insufficient long-term capacity utilization in wafer foundries, supported by artificial intelligence (AI) -driven logic chip demand and internal core business support.

The incremental contribution of external logic chip demand is particularly noteworthy. Citing TrendForce data, the report shows that after Nvidia (NVDA.US) and Groq reached a non-exclusive licensing and intellectual property alignment agreement, the industry is increasingly discussing the transfer of more advanced logic chip production capacity to non-mainstream foundry. Although the specific production capacity scale and time points are not yet clear, advanced logic wafers will significantly increase the number of process steps due to the deep integration and complexity of multiple graphics technology in the extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) era. Coupled with the collaboration between Tesla (TSLA.US) and Samsung, these developments will further solidify the foundation of continued demand for process equipment and materials.

Samsung's internal logic chip production provides important support for advanced process capacity utilization. TrendForce revealed that progress has been made in the development of the Exynos 2600 chip based on Samsung's self-developed 2 nm GAA process, and this internal business will become a “ballast stone” for the capacity utilization rate of advanced process fabs. According to the bank's analysis, whether it is wafer production for internal or external customers, it is necessary to go through the same full process processes such as etching, deposition, cleaning, flattening, measurement, and yield management. Internal logic chip production capacity helps reduce the variability of utilization rate predictions and enhance the visibility of continuous demand.

Morgan Stanley concluded that the core narrative of the industry in 2026 will revolve around two main lines: one is the commissioning of a new fab, and the other is the return to normal utilization of advanced process capacity, which will release the continued demand for process-intensive equipment, consumables, and services. The expansion of emerging logic chip application scenarios and a rise in internal production capacity will drive a significant increase in wafer throughput, which in turn will drive profits for various suppliers.

Looking at the beneficial links in the value chain, the report focuses on three areas: first, protective films and related process consumables. As the number of EUV lithography layers increases, the demand for protective film materials to protect lithography masks and improve graphic fidelity will grow simultaneously with capacity utilization; second, blank masks and intermediate products for detection, as key inputs for lithographic patterning, the material consumption of local mask and blank mask suppliers is directly proportional to the capacity utilization rate, especially in the context of continuous increase in EUV penetration; third, laser-based and precision process equipment, which supports wafer annealing, or slight marking Equipment for manufacturing and other processes, Its usage rate and service cycle will increase directly as throughput increases.