Jefferies: Roivant (ROIV.US) welcomes the three major catalysts in 2026, and the target price is expected to be as high as $24
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Jefferies published an in-depth research report focusing on the investment prospects of biotechnology company Roivant Sciences (ROIV.US). Through rigorous financial models and industry analysis, it revealed its three core catalysts and valuation logic for the future. As a medical holding company, Roivant has 10 subsidiaries, focusing on high-potential fields such as immunology and computational drug discovery, and is committed to maximizing return on investment through new drug development. The research report points out that 2026 will be a key turning point for the company, and the three major catalysts may drive a significant rise in stock prices.
The first catalyst involved LNP technology patent lawsuits with Moderna (MRNA.US) and Pfizer (PFE.US). According to the progress of the lawsuit, trial proceedings will commence on March 9, 2026. Conservative estimates show that if royalties are calculated at 5% of the total CV19 vaccine revenue of 60 to 130 billion US dollars, Roivant can receive damage compensation of 2 to 4.5 billion US dollars; in the Moderna case alone, based on 5% of revenue from 30 to 40 billion US dollars, the company can get a share of 10-15 billion US dollars. The current stock price has partially reflected favorable lawsuits, but if a settlement is reached, additional compensation and the exemplary effects of the Pfizer case may still drive up the stock price.
The second largest catalyst comes from Pulmovant's PH-ILD phase II clinical trial data. The key to the trial is to verify the transformation of the efficacy of PAH treatment regimens in PH-ILD. According to the data, if the Phase II data confirms a decrease in pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) of more than 20%, it is considered a positive sign. If successful, the asset will launch Phase III clinical trials. It is expected to start in the first half of 2027, announce the results in 2030, submit an application in 2031, and be approved in 2032, showing significant value potential not included in the stock price.
The third catalyst is Priovant's BrePO drug phase III NIU trial data. The time point was brought forward to the second half of 2026. There are approximately 70,000 to 100,000 patients with noninfectious uveitis (NIU) in the US, of which 30,000 to 35,000 use off-label treatments such as Humira. Assuming that BREPO is a post-Humira treatment plan covering 20,000 eligible patients, Roivant accounts for 30-50% of the market share, that is, used by 50 to 10,000 patients. Based on a net price of 300,000 US dollars, peak sales can reach US$15-3 billion.
At the valuation level, Jefferies used the division summation method (SOTP) to calculate: the LNP lawsuit expects compensation of US$25-30 billion, and Roivant's share of US$15-20 billion; the IMVT subsidiary's market value is US$5.4 billion, adjusted to US$5.1 billion after deducting US$250 million in cash, and 60% of the company's holdings correspond to a valuation of US$3 billion; Brepo Pharmaceuticals is calculated based on peak sales of US$1.75 billion, 5 times price-earnings ratio and 95% success rate. 75% of the company's shareholding corresponds to a valuation of US$6.25 billion; superimposing the current US$4.4 billion cash and projected 37 billion US dollars After US$100 million in NTM cash, the overall valuation framework is clear.
In terms of risk factors, competitive pressure, regulatory approval uncertainty, and commercialization challenges require continued attention. Based on this, Jefferies gave Roivant a “buy” rating, with a target price of $24, with 10.95% upside compared to the latest closing price of $21.63. The current market value is US$15.4 billion, with a tradable share ratio of 64.2%, an average daily turnover of US$186 million, and a 52-week price range of US$8.73-23.47.