Guosheng Securities 2026 Energy Storage Strategy: Global energy storage explosion is imminent, AI allocation and storage trends are clear
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report saying that looking ahead to the energy storage industry in 2026, it is expected that domestic large storage capacity will increase +111% year-on-year to 283.63 GWh; conservative estimates estimate that domestic large storage capacity will increase by an average of 200 GWh+ per year. Looking at overseas markets, the trend of AI allocation and storage is clear. It is estimated that AIDC storage allocation and storage will drive an increase of 10/27/39 GWh in US energy storage demand from 2026-2028. The proposal focuses on two main lines: 1) domestic large storage: domestic energy storage is in the policy dividend period, the growth trend of independent energy storage is determined, and attention is paid to the flexibility of each company's performance under price transmission; 2) Overseas energy storage: Conventional energy storage demand remains high, and attention is paid to the incremental space brought about by AI storage and Australian & European household storage.
Guosheng Securities's main views are as follows:
Domestic large storage: consumption pressure combined with economic drive, optimistic about long-term growth space for independent energy storage
Price increase transmission: How do you view the impact of lithium carbonate and battery price increases on downstream installed equipment demand?
In December 2025, the price of W2 lithium carbonate increased to 92,600 yuan/ton. In November, domestic lithium battery energy storage EPC won the average bid price +13.4% month-on-month, and the price transmission was relatively smooth. According to estimates by Guosheng Securities, an increase in the price of energy storage cells can be transmitted by 0.05-0.1 yuan/wh. According to estimates, a 1 cent/wh increase in battery cost corresponds to a 0.7% decrease in IRR.
Subsidy costs: How to determine the sustainability of electricity price compensation for independent energy storage capacity in each province?
Most of the cost of electricity price compensation for independent energy storage capacity in the province is borne by industrial and commercial users. Industrial and commercial electricity purchase prices fell by 0.0003-0.0571 yuan, and electricity price compensation costs for independent energy storage capacity boosted system operating costs in industrial and commercial electricity prices by about 0.0027 yuan/kwh (Xinjiang). Taken together, the comprehensive price of industrial and commercial electricity purchases is still on a downward trend. Judging that the electricity price subsidies for independent energy storage capacity in each province are sustainable.
Space outlook: how to measure and forecast 26 years of short-term space and long-term space?
Short-term: Domestic large storage capacity is expected to increase by +111% year-on-year to 283.63 GWh in 2026; long-term: Conservative estimates estimate that domestic large storage capacity will increase by an average of 200 GWh+ per year.
AI storage: Deterministic overseas industry trends. It is estimated that in 2026-2028 AIDC storage will drive an increase in US energy storage demand 10/27/39 GWh
The Nvidia white paper first proposed the “concept” of “double layer energy storage”. AI large model training may cause AIDC's electrical load to fluctuate drastically, and configuring energy storage as a reasonable solution for AI computing power centers. Furthermore, the energy storage investment cycle is short, and it may replace diesel, gas turbines, etc. as long-term backup power for data centers.
According to BCG Consulting, it is estimated that the electricity demand scale for US and global data centers will be 81 GW/125 GW by 2028. It is estimated that from 2026 to 2028, AiDC storage will drive an increase of 10/27/39 GWh in US energy storage demand, accounting for 15%/38%/40% of the total energy storage demand in the US. The competitive landscape of North American energy storage integrators is concentrated, with CR5 around 73% in 2024. According to WoodMackenzie, Tesla, Sunshine Power, and Powin rank in the top 3 market shares.
Overseas Account Storage & Commercial Savings: Optimistic about the growth of the Australian and Hungarian household storage markets in 2026, and optimistic about the long-term demand for overseas commercial and commercial storage.
Overseas household savings: In December 2025, the Australian household storage market increased its subsidies to 7.2 billion Australian dollars. The Hungarian government also launched a $280 million household savings subsidy budget plan, which is optimistic that demand for household storage will increase dramatically.
Overseas industrial and commercial storage: The main electricity costs for small businesses in Europe are the highest. The relative level of electricity costs in Southeast Asia is higher than in China. Higher electricity prices in Africa have catalyzed the need for emergency electricity backup & cost reduction on the enterprise side of industrial and commercial storage. According to estimates, the long-term industrial and commercial storage space in Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa is 146 GWh.
Aspect of the target
Big Reserve focuses on Sunshine Power (300274.SZ), Haibo Starlight (688411.SH), Artes (688472.SH), Tongrun Equipment (002150.SZ), Shangneng Electric (300827.SZ), etc.; Household Savings Group focuses on Deye (605117.SH), Aero Energy (), Jinlang Technology (300763.SZ), Goodway (US), Cosda (002518.SZ), Paineng Technology (YouTube), etc. 688717.SH 688390.SH 688063.SH
Risk Alerts
Demand for data centers falls short of expectations, industry competition increases risks, uncertainty about policy subsidies, and risks associated with calculation assumptions.