The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that compared to the V-shaped reversal of the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in November, there was no significant change in the macroeconomic narrative about developed economies in December. The US unemployment rate rose in November and CPI inflation unexpectedly cooled down, but neither of these changed the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut. Both the CITIC Securities Overseas Macro Group and CLSA expect the Federal Reserve to suspend interest rate cuts in January 2026. Economic sentiment in the Eurozone continues to decline, and growth momentum is still weak. Against the backdrop of the ECB keeping interest rates unchanged, Germany raised the scale of debt issuance, and instability in French politics, the CITIC Securities Overseas Macro Group recommended being cautious about long-term European bonds. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 bps as scheduled in December 2025, bringing the policy interest rate to a 30-year high of 0.75%. Both the CITIC Securities Overseas Macro Group and CLSA expect Japan's policy interest rate to reach 1% within 2026. South Korea's growth prospects are improving, and inflation is likely to maintain a slightly higher growth rate than the target. CLSA expects the Bank of Korea to cut interest rates by 25 bps in January 2026.

The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that compared to the V-shaped reversal of the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in November, there was no significant change in the macroeconomic narrative about developed economies in December. The US unemployment rate rose in November and CPI inflation unexpectedly cooled down, but neither of these changed the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut. Both the CITIC Securities Overseas Macro Group and CLSA expect the Federal Reserve to suspend interest rate cuts in January 2026. Economic sentiment in the Eurozone continues to decline, and growth momentum is still weak. Against the backdrop of the ECB keeping interest rates unchanged, Germany raised the scale of debt issuance, and instability in French politics, the CITIC Securities Overseas Macro Group recommended being cautious about long-term European bonds. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 bps as scheduled in December 2025, bringing the policy interest rate to a 30-year high of 0.75%. Both the CITIC Securities Overseas Macro Group and CLSA expect Japan's policy interest rate to reach 1% within 2026. South Korea's growth prospects are improving, and inflation is likely to maintain a slightly higher growth rate than the target. CLSA expects the Bank of Korea to cut interest rates by 25 bps in January 2026.