Reach the $90,000 mark! Bitcoin welcomed a “good start” in the new year, and the market's long and short game intensified

Bitcoin experienced sharp fluctuations in 2025. It once reached 93,000 US dollars at the beginning of the year, plummeted to 74,500 US dollars in April, rebounded strongly and reached a record high of 126,200 US dollars in October, then regained most of its gains. Market differences have increased significantly over the medium- to long-term trend of Bitcoin.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that many analysts pointed out that some investors believe that Bitcoin has peaked in stages, and the risk of a bear market is rising; there are also opinions that there is limited room for decline, and it is still expected to hit a new high in 2026. It is worth paying attention to whether the traditional “four-year cycle” is still applicable. Proponents of the “weakening cycle” believe that friendly regulation, Bitcoin ETF implementation, and institutional requirements are changing the rules of price operation in the past.

Looking at the monthly outlook, Bitcoin is still maintaining an upward structure. The previous two pullbacks were supported near the 20-month exponential moving average (about US$88,000), which became a key line of defense. If it effectively falls below this moving average and falls below the April low of $74,500, the upward structure will be disrupted, and the price may retreat towards the $50,000 area. Conversely, if it rebounds from the short-term EMA and returns to the psychological threshold of $100,000, the bulls are expected to challenge another $126,200; if the breakthrough is successful, the next upward target may point to $1412,000 to $178,600.

However, the weekly level is short term, and the moving average may have a “dead cross” for the first time since the beginning of 2022. Historical experience shows that if the rebound is blocked near the moving average, the price may repeatedly test $74,500; if the support level is tested many times, the risk of falling below will rise and may evolve into a pattern above head and shoulders, dragging the market into a longer consolidation period.

Bitcoin's fluctuations are also being transmitted to capital markets. Saylor, who has long emphasized “volatility is a characteristic rather than a flaw,” is expected to record an unrealized loss of billions of dollars in the upcoming fourth quarter earnings report, which is at the helm of the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR.US). The reason is that the company introduced accounting rules measured by market value this year, and the price of Bitcoin fell by about 24% in the fourth quarter, dragging down the value of its Bitcoin holdings of about 60 billion US dollars.

This is in stark contrast to the previous quarter's profit of $2.8 billion. Market participants pointed out that as the treasury company model spreads, fair value measurement will reflect price fluctuations of crypto assets more directly into profit statements, amplifying financial volatility. In 2025, Strategy's common stock fell 48% cumulatively, causing investors to worry about its ability to cover dividends and interest. To ease the pressure, the company established a cash reserve by issuing additional common shares in early December and updated its full-year guidance at the beginning of the month, assuming a Bitcoin price range of 85,000 to $110,000 at the end of the year. Given that Bitcoin closed around $88,600 at the end of the year, the operating results are more likely to fall at the lower end of the guidance range.

Furthermore, Saylor's personal wealth also declined sharply in 2025. According to the data, its net worth fell by about 40% from the beginning of the year to about 3.8 billion US dollars. Meanwhile, Strategy's corporate value is close to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, and the market capitalization premium (mNaV) has dropped to slightly above 1, indicating that the premium paid by investors for the “coin-based” strategy is fading.

Entering the new year, risk assets picked up in the short term: Strategy's stock price once rose 5.2% to about $160, and Bitcoin stood at $90,000. However, analysts cautioned that against the backdrop of weak technology, increased fluctuations in accounting rules, and undecided whether the cycle has failed, Bitcoin and related stocks may still maintain a pattern of high volatility. In the short term, 74,500 and 100,000 US dollars will become two key points in the market game.