Fangzheng Securities: The Hong Kong stock market will face risk appetite correction suggestions and focus on opportunities for booming emerging industries to make up for gains
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Fangzheng Securities released a research report saying that as the New Year's Eve market gradually unfolds, the market is expected to shift from a “volatile trend” to a “spring agitation” market. High-quality A-share assets are cost-effective globally. It is recommended to focus on technological growth, flexible procyclical sectors with an imbalance between supply and demand, and blue-chip assets with long-term allocation capital preferences. In terms of the Hong Kong stock market, capital from the south continues to accelerate its inflow into the Hong Kong stock market, providing solid financial support for the Hong Kong stock market. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in December and the resumption of table expansion brought about global liquidity easing, and Hong Kong stocks are expected to fully benefit from the return of foreign capital and the restoration of risk appetite. It is recommended to focus on opportunities for booming emerging industries represented by Hang Seng Technology to make up for growth.
Fangzheng Securities's main views are as follows:
A-share view: As the New Year's Eve market gradually unfolds, the market is expected to shift from a “volatile trend” to a “spring agitation” market. High-quality A-share assets are cost-effective globally, and we can focus on three major directions: one is long-term industry trend opportunities for technological growth assets, the second is the procyclical sector with strong price increases driven by the imbalance between supply and demand, and the third is blue-chip assets that meet long-term allocation capital preferences.
Hong Kong Stock Opinion: It is recommended to focus on opportunities for booming emerging industries represented by Hang Seng Technology to make up for gains. Recently, the trade conflict between China and the US has once again eased, which is conducive to boosting market risk appetite. Southbound capital continues to accelerate its inflow into the Hong Kong stock market, providing solid financial support for the Hong Kong stock market. Furthermore, Hong Kong stocks have responded well to the improvement in global liquidity, the weakening of the US dollar, and the restoration of risk appetite. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in December and the resumption of table expansion brought about global liquidity easing, and Hong Kong stocks are expected to fully benefit from the return of foreign capital and the restoration of risk appetite.
US stock view: Although the profit side of US stocks is still relatively stable in 2025, valuations and market concentration have once again returned to historic highs, which means that the fluctuation of US stocks has increased under current levels. US stock profits are expected to continue to rise in 2026, mainly benefiting from the unabated AI boom, further reduction in tariff risk, and broad monetary and fiscal policies. Investment in US stocks may revolve around two main lines: First, the tech stock narrative is not over yet, and the boom in AI is expected to continue. Second, the procyclical sector is reversing its predicament. The main opportunities lie in the midstream manufacturing industry, downstream demand such as consumption, real estate, etc., and the pharmaceutical sector.
Domestic bond perspective: The future will enter a complex game stage of “weak economic recovery, steady and relaxed policies, and excessive central bank prevention.” The central bank's clear attitude of “stabilizing interest rates” will limit the downward space for long-term interest rates. It is expected that it will shift to a pattern of range-bound fluctuations. It is difficult to break the previous low, but it also lacks a significant upward foundation. Short-term interest rates are highly stable under the protection of “maintaining abundant liquidity”, which is beneficial to leveraging strategies. Investors should lower their expectations of capital gains, shift their strategic focus to coupon income and liquidity management, and pay close attention to the central bank's potential guidance signals for long-term returns.
US debt opinion: US inflation data for November was lower than expected, but the quality of the data remains to be seen. The decline in US bond interest rates was limited after the data was released. Looking back, before the job market had clearly strengthened, the Federal Reserve was likely to favor it. Long-term US debt continues to decline, but the magnitude may be limited. Follow up on marginal changes in the US treasury and employment and inflation data for December.
Commodity views: Anti-domestic policies continue to advance, and focus on the actual implementation of subsequent production capacity reduction policies. (1) Crude oil: Geopolitical conflicts have eased marginally, OPEC+ strategy has shifted to supply-side expansion, and short-term pressure on oil prices; (2) industrial metals: rising global economic growth expectations drive demand recovery, deep restructuring of the supply and demand pattern, supply-side disturbances are frequent, and the valuation center is expected to move upward in an environment of easy liquidity; (3) In terms of agricultural products: there are large differences in different segments; (4) Precious metals: the world is still currently in the phase of government leverage, especially for the US, where medium- to long-term gold deficits tend to rise and fall, making it difficult to cope with the medium- to long-term gold deficit. monetary attributes of or It continues to stand out and continues to be beneficial.
Risk warning: macroeconomic support policies fall short of expectations, geopolitical risks exceed expectations, ongoing global inflation problems, large fluctuations in overseas markets, and repeated twists and turns in Sino-US trade negotiations.