Although the US arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro after the air strike was a shocking geopolitical event, initial signs suggest that the global crude oil market will largely be able to absorb this change. According to people familiar with the matter, Venezuela's oil infrastructure was unaffected after a series of US attacks on Caracas and other states. Key facilities are still in operation, including Port José, the Amouai refinery, and the oil zone in the Orinoco oil belt. Venezuela used to be an important oil producer, but production has declined sharply over the past 20 years, and currently accounts for less than 1% of global supply. Recently, the United States put pressure on the Maduro administration, including the seizure of oil tankers carrying Venezuelan crude oil, forcing the country to begin closing some oil wells. Meanwhile, according to data from the International Energy Agency, global crude oil supply is expected to exceed demand by 3.8 million barrels per day in 2026, with surpluses at a record high level. Crude oil prices have dropped to around $60 per barrel in recent weeks. According to a weekend retail trading product operated by IG Group, the price of U.S. crude oil once rose nearly 2 US dollars from last Friday's closing price. Arne Lohman Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management, said, “According to my assessment, Brent crude oil will only rise slightly when the market opens on Sunday night, about 1 to 2 dollars, and probably even lower. Even under normal supply and demand conditions, disruptions of this scale can be handled by the market. Now all predictions point to a significant oversupply in the first quarter, mainly driven by weak seasonal demand and increased OPEC+ production.”

Although the US arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro after the air strike was a shocking geopolitical event, initial signs suggest that the global crude oil market will largely be able to absorb this change. According to people familiar with the matter, Venezuela's oil infrastructure was unaffected after a series of US attacks on Caracas and other states. Key facilities are still in operation, including Port José, the Amouai refinery, and the oil zone in the Orinoco oil belt. Venezuela used to be an important oil producer, but production has declined sharply over the past 20 years, and currently accounts for less than 1% of global supply. Recently, the United States put pressure on the Maduro administration, including the seizure of oil tankers carrying Venezuelan crude oil, forcing the country to begin closing some oil wells. Meanwhile, according to data from the International Energy Agency, global crude oil supply is expected to exceed demand by 3.8 million barrels per day in 2026, with surpluses at a record high level. Crude oil prices have dropped to around $60 per barrel in recent weeks. According to a weekend retail trading product operated by IG Group, the price of U.S. crude oil once rose nearly 2 US dollars from last Friday's closing price. Arne Lohman Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management, said, “According to my assessment, Brent crude oil will only rise slightly when the market opens on Sunday night, about 1 to 2 dollars, and probably even lower. Even under normal supply and demand conditions, disruptions of this scale can be handled by the market. Now all predictions point to a significant oversupply in the first quarter, mainly driven by weak seasonal demand and increased OPEC+ production.”