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    Illinois Tool Works (ITW): Assessing Valuation After a Period of Flat Share Price Performance

    Simply Wall St·01/04/2026 20:30:19
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    Illinois Tool Works (ITW) has been quietly treading water lately, with the share price roughly flat over the past month and up just over 1% in the past year, despite steady earnings growth.

    See our latest analysis for Illinois Tool Works.

    At around $249.5 per share, Illinois Tool Works has seen modest recent moves, with a slightly negative 90 day share price return contrasting with a solid multi year total shareholder return that suggests longer term investors are still being rewarded.

    If you want to see how a steady compounder like this compares, now is a good time to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as potential higher growth ideas.

    Given that Illinois Tool Works is still growing earnings and trades only slightly below analyst targets, investors now face a familiar dilemma: is this a fairly valued compounder or a quiet buying opportunity before potential future growth is fully reflected in the price?

    Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 4.4% Undervalued

    The most followed narrative sees Illinois Tool Works trading slightly below its fair value estimate of $261, compared with the last close at $249.5, framing a modestly optimistic long term setup.

    The analysts are assuming Illinois Tool Works's revenue will grow by 3.7% annually over the next 3 years.

    Analysts expect earnings to reach $3.6 billion (and earnings per share of $12.8) by about September 2028, up from $3.4 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what turns steady mid single digit growth into a higher valuation multiple? The narrative quietly factors in richer margins and a punchy earnings multiple. Curious which assumptions really pull this fair value higher, and how much of the upside rests on multiple expansion versus pure profit growth? Dive in to unpack the numbers behind that conviction.

    Result: Fair Value of $261 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, softer organic growth and ongoing pressure in automotive and construction end markets could quickly challenge the case for sustained expansion in valuation multiples.

    Find out about the key risks to this Illinois Tool Works narrative.

    Build Your Own Illinois Tool Works Narrative

    If the story here does not quite match your view, or you prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Illinois Tool Works research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.