Reassessing Newmont (NEM): Is the Recent Momentum Justified by Its Valuation?
What is driving Newmont right now
Newmont (NEM) has quietly turned into one of the more interesting gold names this year, with the stock up roughly 13% over the past month and around 14% in the past 3 months.
See our latest analysis for Newmont.
Zooming out, that recent 1 month share price return of about 13% sits on top of a flat year to date share price but a huge 1 year total shareholder return of roughly 170%. This suggests momentum has meaningfully turned in Newmont’s favor as the market reassesses its growth runway and risk profile.
If Newmont’s turnaround has you rethinking where capital could work hardest next, it might be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to uncover the next wave of potential leaders.
With shares still trading at a sizeable discount to many intrinsic value estimates but already reflecting a dramatic earnings rebound, the key question now is whether Newmont remains undervalued or if the market has fully priced in its next phase of growth.
Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 3.2% Undervalued
With Newmont last closing at $101.22 against a widely followed fair value near $105, the prevailing narrative leans toward modest upside still on the table.
The realization of synergies and increased production scale following the Newcrest Mining acquisition, together with ongoing asset optimization and the ramp up of expansion projects (such as Ahafo North and Tanami), should support long term revenue growth and cash flow stability.
Want to see how steady but unspectacular growth, resilient margins, and a tighter share count combine into that price tag? The narrative’s math might surprise you.
Result: Fair Value of $104.53 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, several operational setbacks and rising sustaining capital needs could constrain cash generation and quickly weaken the case for sustained upside.
Find out about the key risks to this Newmont narrative.
Build Your Own Newmont Narrative
If you are not fully sold on this view or would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can spin up a custom take in under three minutes: Do it your way.
A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Newmont.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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