Evaluating Dynavax (DVAX) After Its Recent Share Price Rally: Is the Stock Still Undervalued?
Dynavax Technologies (DVAX) has quietly turned in a strong run, with the stock up about 41% over the past month and 52% in the past 3 months, inviting a closer look.
See our latest analysis for Dynavax Technologies.
Zooming out, that powerful 3 month share price return sits alongside a 5 year total shareholder return above 200%. This suggests the latest move looks more like renewed momentum than a one off spike at the current $15.38 share price.
If Dynavax’s run has you rethinking your healthcare exposure, it might be a good time to explore other vaccine makers and biotech names in healthcare stocks.
With shares still trading at a sizable discount to analyst targets despite solid revenue and earnings momentum, investors now face a key question: is Dynavax undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 20.1% Undervalued
Compared with Dynavax Technologies' last close at $15.38, the most followed narrative points to a fair value near $19.25, implying meaningful upside if its assumptions hold.
Ongoing investment in the development pipeline (notably the shingles, pandemic influenza, and Lyme disease vaccine programs) positions Dynavax to benefit from heightened global government/public health focus on pandemic preparedness and preventative care, creating new long-term revenue streams and diversifying future earnings.
Curious how a loss making vaccine specialist gets marked up to a richer future earnings multiple than many peers, while still assuming brisk revenue and margin expansion? The full narrative unpacks the specific growth runway, profitability reset and valuation leap that need to click into place for that upside case to work.
Result: Fair Value of $19.25 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this upside view could unravel if Dynavax stumbles on key clinical trials or if HEPLISAV-B falls short of aggressive market share expectations.
Find out about the key risks to this Dynavax Technologies narrative.
Build Your Own Dynavax Technologies Narrative
If this perspective does not quite fit your view, or you would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Dynavax Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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