Morgan Stanley said that the oversupply in the global oil market may expand in the first half of the year and may peak in the middle of the year, putting pressure on oil prices. The agency lowered its forecast for the first three quarters of 2026. Analysts such as Martijn Rats wrote in a report: “The balance in the global oil market will deteriorate before it improves, and will still bias future oil prices downward.” They said that although some countries still have geopolitical risks, they will only have a lasting impact on prices when these risks cause actual production losses, “and records show that this rarely happens.” They said that the average price of Brent oil is expected to be $57.50 per barrel this quarter, 55 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter, and 57.50 US dollars per barrel in the third quarter, lower than the previous forecast of 60 US dollars per barrel. Expectations for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 remain at $60 per barrel.

Morgan Stanley said that the oversupply in the global oil market may expand in the first half of the year and may peak in the middle of the year, putting pressure on oil prices. The agency lowered its forecast for the first three quarters of 2026. Analysts such as Martijn Rats wrote in a report: “The balance in the global oil market will deteriorate before it improves, and will still bias future oil prices downward.” They said that although some countries still have geopolitical risks, they will only have a lasting impact on prices when these risks cause actual production losses, “and records show that this rarely happens.” They said that the average price of Brent oil is expected to be $57.50 per barrel this quarter, 55 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter, and 57.50 US dollars per barrel in the third quarter, lower than the previous forecast of 60 US dollars per barrel. Expectations for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 remain at $60 per barrel.