A Look At Novavax (NVAX) Valuation After Singapore JN.1 Vaccine Rollout And Revenue Beat
Novavax (NVAX) shares moved higher after its JN.1 Covid-19 vaccine became available at select GP clinics in Singapore from January 2 to May 31, 2026, highlighting renewed interest in its Covid-19 franchise.
See our latest analysis for Novavax.
The Singapore rollout and recent revenue beat come after a volatile period, with a 6.1% 1 day share price return and a 90 day share price decline of 21.48%, while the 5 year total shareholder return of a 94.15% decline points to momentum that has been fading over a longer horizon.
If this kind of vaccine news has your attention, it could be a good moment to see how other healthcare stocks are pricing in similar themes.
With the share price still far below its 5 year level, a recent revenue beat, and the stock trading at a heavy discount to analyst targets, you have to ask: is Novavax undervalued, or is future growth already priced in?
Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 45.6% Undervalued
With Novavax last closing at US$7.13 and the most followed narrative suggesting fair value around US$13.11, the gap between price and thesis is wide.
The analysts have a consensus price target of $12.5 for Novavax based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $25.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $6.0.
Curious what has to happen to earnings, revenue, and margins for that valuation to stack up? The entire narrative leans on shrinking profits and a richer future earnings multiple. Want to see how those moving parts fit together into that fair value call?
Result: Fair Value of $13.11 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this hinges on partners like Sanofi and Takeda achieving regulatory and commercial milestones, and on Covid vaccine demand not fading faster than analysts currently factor in.
Find out about the key risks to this Novavax narrative.
Build Your Own Novavax Narrative
If you see the story differently, or prefer to test the assumptions against the raw numbers yourself, you can build a custom thesis in a few minutes by starting with Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Novavax research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
Looking for more investment ideas?
If Novavax has you thinking more broadly about your portfolio, now is a smart time to scan other opportunities before they move out of reach.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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