GF Securities: Energy storage development at home and abroad will gradually improve in 2026, and PV's anti-internal reversal will advance in depth
The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report saying that looking ahead to the optical storage industry in 2026, the domestic electricity price mechanism is expected to be implemented in many provinces, and energy storage economy will reach an inflection point; overseas data center construction is driving rapid growth in energy storage demand. AIDC will enter a “delivery year” in 2026, and the addition of 13 GW data centers in the US will drive 10.7-25 GWh storage demand. In the photovoltaic industry, under the further requirements of the General Administration of Market Regulation, the PV reverse internal roll is expected to be further implemented and strengthened, and industry profits can be expected to improve. On the demand side, the global PV industry is expected to add nearly 580 GW of installed capacity in 2026, or +6% compared to the same period last year.
The main views of GF Securities are as follows:
Big storage: Domestic large storage has ushered in opportunities for electricity reform, and overseas energy storage demand is expected to grow rapidly from AI
Domestic market: Capacity electricity pricing mechanisms in many provinces are expected to be implemented, and the energy storage economy is at an inflection point. Supporting energy storage policies in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia and other places continue to stabilize energy storage expectations. The capacity electricity price policy has a great impact on the economy of energy storage. Taking Gansu as an example, it is estimated that the IRR capital for independent energy storage in Gansu is expected to reach 9.9%. With the introduction of capacity electricity pricing mechanisms in many provinces, domestic energy storage demand is expected to reach 154/254/337 GWh in 2025-2027, +40.2%/65.2%/32.5% year-on-year.
US: Data center construction is driving rapid growth in demand for energy storage. According to Trend Force, 2025 is the “first year of demand” for AIDC storage, and 2026 will enter the “big year of delivery”, and the addition of 13 GW data centers in the US will drive 10.7-25 GW storage demand; Europe: Demand for flexible resources is urgent, business model improvement, and subsidies are shifting, and the development of large reserves in European countries has accelerated markedly. Furthermore, the major power outage in Europe has spawned new demand for grid-based energy storage, and the competitive landscape is expected to be optimized. Global energy storage is expected to add about 279/423/563GWh in 2025-2027, or +44%/52%/33% year-on-year.
Commercial and commercial storage & household storage: Domestic commercial and commercial savings policy adjustments, overseas commercial and commercial storage is expected to maintain rapid growth; demand for household storage in Europe and the US remains stable
Domestic: Major energy storage provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong introduced new time-sharing electricity price policies during the year, showing a distinct characteristic of falling south and rising north. The overall promotion of the electricity spot market may cause instability in commercial and commercial storage earnings. From recommendations to mandatory security upgrades, it has also raised industrial and commercial storage costs; Europe: Multiple factors are driving the rapid growth in demand for industrial and commercial storage in Europe. Renewable energy integration is increasing; US: The net billing policy for commercial and commercial savings is expected to be implemented in 2026. Demand for commercial and commercial savings may increase on a large scale in 2027. The US NEM 3.0 transition+interest rate cut is expected to free up space for household storage demand; Australia: Expansion of subsidies will drive rapid growth in household storage demand.
Photovoltaics: anti-internal roll continues to advance, technological innovation helps reverse
Supply: Anti-internal circulation continues to advance, production in the industrial chain is declining, and PV anti-internal circulation is expected to be further strengthened and implemented. According to Century Renewable Energy Network, on December 26, the General Administration of Market Regulation reported price violations and risks in the photovoltaic industry, and emphasized that the entire industry should fully understand the importance of rectifying “internal rolling” competition in the photovoltaic industry. Guangfa Securities believes that under the further requirements of the General Administration of Market Regulation, the PV anti-internal roll is expected to be further implemented and strengthened, industry profits can be expected to improve, and it is optimistic about the profit improvement in the downstream module link of the PV industry chain in 2026.
Demand: Considering the reasonable carrying capacity of PV installations in various regions, it is estimated that in 2026, global PV will add nearly 580 GW of installed capacity, +6% compared to the same period; technological innovation: reducing costs and increasing efficiency to help reverse profit margins first, and BC industrialization is expected to accelerate.
Aspect of the target
The photovoltaic sector recommends Jingke Energy (688223.SH), Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), Longji Green Energy (601012.SH), and Jingao Technology (002459.SZ), leading the innovation of N-type technology. It is recommended to focus on Junda Co., Ltd. (002865.SZ); it is recommended to recommend auxiliary materials and materials that benefit from the iteration of new technologies.
The energy storage sector recommends Sunshine Power (300274.SZ), Haibo Sichuang (688411.SH), Artes (688472.SH), Shenghong (300693.SZ), and Hewang Electric (603063.SH), which have leading technology in the field of storage and has first-mover advantages and scale advantages at home and abroad. It is recommended to focus on Shangneng Electric (300827.SZ), Kehua Data (002335.SZ), etc.
The household storage sector suggests focusing on specific markets and new products such as Huabao Xinneng (301327.SZ), Aero Energy (301139.SZ), Goodway (688390.SH), Hemai (688032.SH), and Yuneng Technology (688348.SH).
Risk Alerts
Demand falls short of expectations; industrial chain price risk; risk of worsening competition pattern, etc.