Guoyuan International: Proposals to implement safeguard measures for imported beef focus on Youran Animal Husbandry (09858)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoyuan International released a research report saying that the current import beef quota system will reduce domestic supply pressure, compounded by the continued acceleration of domestic beef cattle removal. Domestic beef prices are expected to continue to rise, directly increasing the profits of animal husbandry companies. Recommended attention: Excellent Animal Husbandry (09858).

Guoyuan International's main views are as follows:

Incidents

The Ministry of Commerce issued a notice deciding to adopt safeguard measures for imported beef in the form of “national quotas and additional tariffs” from January 1, 2026, and to levy an additional 55% tariff on the portion exceeding the quota. The implementation period of the safeguard measures is 3 years.

Implement “country quotas and additional tariffs” safeguard measures for imported beef

On December 31, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce officially announced the ruling on imposing safeguard measures on imported beef. The investigation authority ruled that “the amount of imported beef has increased, and China's domestic industry has been seriously damaged, and there is a causal relationship between the increase in the number of imported products and serious damage”, and decided to adopt safeguard measures for imported beef in the form of “national quotas and additional tariffs”. The implementation period of the safeguard measures is 3 years.

The current quota system mainly targets countries with large imports. Taking 2026 as an example, the beef import quota is 2.688 million tons, of which Brazil's share is 1.106 million tons, Argentina is 511,000 tons, Uruguay 324,000 tons, and Australia is 205,000 tons. In 2027 and 2028, beef import quotas were 2.742 million tons and 2.797 million tons, respectively. Countries will additionally charge 55% tariffs.

Imported beef accounts for a high proportion, and the quota system favors domestic beef prices

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in 2024, China's beef imports were 2.87 million tons, +5.0% year-on-year. Among them, Brazil/Argentina/Uruguay/Australia imported 134/59/210,000 tons respectively, accounting for 46.6%/20.6%/8.4%/7.4%, respectively. In 2024, China's beef production will be 7.79 million tons, and the amount of imported beef will exceed 30% of China's own production. From January to November 2025, China imported 2.59 million tons of beef, -0.38% year-on-year. According to estimates from previous years, the current quota will cover about 7-80% of each country's beef imports, and a 55% tariff will be added to the rest.

Since 2025, the industry has begun to eliminate cows, and tight supply is driving up beef prices. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on December 26, 2025, the price of beef in China was 53.5 yuan/kg, +14.4% over the same period last year. The current quota system will further optimize domestic supply and benefit domestic beef prices.