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    The Bull Case For Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Could Change Following Aress Co‑Brand Credit Launch – Learn Why

    Simply Wall St·01/05/2026 07:18:03
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    • In December 2025, Transformco (formerly Sears Holdings), Fidem and funds managed by Blue Owl Capital launched Aress Financial Services, a co-branded credit card origination and servicing joint venture built to streamline capital use and integrate rewards, underwriting and servicing on one platform.
    • The venture unites Transformco's large-scale rewards program, Fidem's proprietary credit models refined on more than US$15.00 billion in managed assets, and Blue Owl's bespoke capital expertise to offer brands a bank-grade, end-to-end alternative to traditional credit card servicing models.
    • Next, we'll examine how Blue Owl's role in Aress, especially its focus on capital-efficient co-brand credit infrastructure, could influence its investment narrative.

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    Blue Owl Capital Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Blue Owl Capital, you need to be comfortable with an asset manager leaning into permanent capital and specialized credit, while accepting fundraising cyclicality and execution risk across multiple platforms. The Aress Financial Services launch looks additive to Blue Owl's private credit toolkit but does not appear to change the most important near term catalyst, which is the firm's ability to sustain fee based AUM growth despite recent earnings volatility and a dividend that is not fully covered by profits.

    Among recent announcements, the Meta Hyperion data center joint venture stands out as most relevant when you think about Aress, because both highlight how Blue Owl is using bespoke capital structures in scaled, capital intensive verticals. Together, they show the firm extending its reach across real assets and consumer finance while still facing the same core risks around integration complexity, higher compliance costs and the need to keep attracting fresh capital into its permanent and semi permanent vehicles.

    Yet beneath these growth stories, investors should be aware that...

    Read the full narrative on Blue Owl Capital (it's free!)

    Blue Owl Capital’s narrative projects $4.2 billion revenue and $5.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 17.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $5.0 billion earnings increase from $75.4 million today.

    Uncover how Blue Owl Capital's forecasts yield a $20.82 fair value, a 36% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    OWL 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    OWL 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Six fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$0.54 to US$28, with views scattered across that range. You should weigh those against Blue Owl's reliance on sustained fundraising and fee growth, which could materially affect how its recent ventures translate into long term business performance.

    Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Blue Owl Capital - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

    Build Your Own Blue Owl Capital Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.