Southwest Securities: Significant shareholders of iFLYTEK (02506) took the initiative to extend the ban period, demonstrating long-term confidence
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Southwest Securities released a research report saying that the AI medical market space is large. iFLYTEK (02506) has a large self-developed base model, and the upper performance limit continues to rise. As the AI medical company with the widest coverage in the industry, the company is the main target of undertaking policy dividends and national projects, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
The main views of Southwest Securities are as follows:
Incidents
On December 29, 2025, the company issued a notice on shareholders to voluntarily extend the ban period. The main shareholders of iFLYTEK, including core investors such as parent company iFLYTEK Co., Ltd., Kexun Venture Capital, etc., as well as executive partnership platforms and important individual shareholders, took the initiative to extend the ban period of shares originally scheduled to expire on December 29, 2025 for another year until December 29, 2026, and not reduce their holdings of the company's H shares or unlisted shares during the commitment period. As of the announcement date, the above shareholders held a total of 52,758,395 H shares of the company, accounting for 68.25% of the total H share capital, and the total share capital holding ratio reached 72.86%.
Important shareholders took the initiative to extend the sales ban period, demonstrating long-term confidence
Active retention reflects the high recognition of the company's future development by major stakeholders, and also indirectly confirms the company's AI healthcare strategy and medium- to long-term growth space. Second, the total share holdings of core shareholders are extremely high. The continuation of the ban period stabilizes market growth expectations to a certain extent, helps contain short-term stock supply pressure, and has a positive supporting effect on stock prices. Executives and core technical teams deeply bind shares through employee shareholding platforms to fully mobilize team enthusiasm, which is conducive to consolidating business innovation momentum.
Deeply bound to the self-developed “Starfire” model, with full-stack autonomous and controllable technical barriers
In March 2025, the company officially released the “iFLY Spark Medical Model X1” based on deep reasoning technology. This model is currently the only large-scale medical in-depth inference model that has been completely completed using national production computing power training. In the real scenario test, the reasonable rate of general adjuvant diagnosis reached 94.0%. In July 2025, the iFLY Spark Medical Big Model completed a capacity upgrade, and many performance indicators were further improved. Specifically, the reasonable rate of adjuvant diagnosis in general medicine was raised to 95.0%, the reasonable rate of interpretation of medical examination reports was raised to 86.3%, the response rate for health consultation was raised to 91.5%, and the reasonable rate of hospital-level cardiovascular medicine diagnoses increased to 91.2%. Testing shows that in key medical scenarios, its performance continues to be far ahead of mainstream international models such as OpenAI O3 and DeepSeek R1. Unlike most AI application companies that rely on third-party or open source models, iFLYTEK relies heavily on the parent company iFLYTEK's self-developed “Spark” model, and the model is entirely based on domestic computing power training. This brings two core advantages: first, in the G-side and B-side markets, especially in the government and large public hospitals, autonomy and control and data security are key considerations and form a strong entry advantage; second, medical business data and application experience can feed back the iteration of the underlying big model, forming a closed loop and positive cycle of technology research and development. Product performance and iterative efficiency will continue to lead in the long run.
AI+ healthcare is a clear policy incremental direction, and the company fully benefits as a leader
Against the backdrop of tighter local finance and health insurance fee controls, traditional medical IT investment is under pressure, but using AI to raise the level of primary diagnosis and treatment and optimize the allocation of medical resources is a clear incremental investment direction for departments such as the National Health and Health Commission. From the “14th Five-Year Plan” National Health Informatization Plan to various AI application guidelines, policy support continues to be strengthened. As the AI medical company with the widest coverage in the industry, iFLYTEK is the main target of undertaking policy dividends and national projects.
Profit forecast: The estimated revenue for 2025-2027 will be 930 million yuan, 1.21 billion yuan, and 1.58 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PS will be 8.5 times, 6.5 times, and 5 times, respectively.
Risk warning: Risk of market expansion falling short of expectations, risk of delayed contract execution, risk of increased market competition.