Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) Valuation Check After Strong Multi Year Shareholder Returns
Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) has been drawing investor attention after recent share price moves, with the stock closing at CA$19.42 as traders weigh its current valuation against recent returns and fundamentals.
See our latest analysis for Centerra Gold.
Recent trading has been choppy, with a 1 day share price return of a 1.72% decline and a 7 day share price return of a 1.22% decline, set against a stronger 30 day share price return of 6.29% and a 90 day share price return of 21.91%. Over the longer haul, momentum has been more apparent in the 1 year total shareholder return of 143.32% and 3 year total shareholder return of 177.13%, while the 5 year total shareholder return of 58.70% shows the move has built over time rather than arriving all at once.
If Centerra’s run has you thinking about where else capital is moving, it could be a good moment to look at fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as another source of ideas.
With Centerra Gold now around CA$19.42 and trading at what some models suggest is a sizable intrinsic discount, the key question is simple: is this an undervalued opportunity or is the market already pricing in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 4.8% Overvalued
Compared with the last close at CA$19.42, the most followed narrative points to a slightly lower fair value, framing Centerra’s current pricing as a modest premium.
The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$12.567 for Centerra Gold based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CA$14.86, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CA$9.48.
Curious what kind of revenue path, margin profile, and future earnings multiple are being used to justify that target range? The full narrative lays out a detailed earnings bridge, tight share count assumptions, and a specific discount rate that together shape this fair value view.
Result: Fair Value of $18.53 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this view still leans heavily on smooth execution at Mount Milligan and Oksüt, where guidance misses, cost pressures, or royalty changes could quickly challenge those assumptions.
Find out about the key risks to this Centerra Gold narrative.
Another Angle On Value
Our SWS DCF model paints a very different picture, with fair value at CA$34.34 compared with the CA$19.42 share price, which points to CG trading at a sizeable discount. When one model sees a small premium and another sees a large gap, which assumptions do you trust more?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Build Your Own Centerra Gold Narrative
If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion, or simply prefer your own work, you can build a complete view yourself in a few minutes, Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Centerra Gold research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
Looking for more investment ideas?
If Centerra Gold has caught your eye, do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist with other focused ideas so you are not relying on a single story.
- Spot potential value opportunities early by scanning these 870 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, which is built around companies trading below what their cash flows might justify.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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