Assessing Hecla Mining (HL) Valuation After Mixed Short Term Moves And Strong Recent Momentum
Hecla Mining stock overview after recent performance
Hecla Mining (HL) has drawn attention after recent share price moves, with the stock showing mixed short term returns and stronger performance over the past 3 months and year.
See our latest analysis for Hecla Mining.
The recent pullback, including a 1.7% 1 day and 7 day share price decline to around $18.87, comes after a stronger 30 day share price return of about 11% and very large 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests that momentum has been building despite short term volatility.
If Hecla Mining’s move has you thinking about what else is out there in materials and beyond, it could be a good moment to check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.
So with Hecla Mining trading around $18.87, strong recent momentum, mixed short term moves, a value score of 2 and an estimated intrinsic discount of about 54%, is the market offering a buying window or already pricing in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 18.7% Overvalued
The widely followed narrative sees Hecla Mining’s fair value at US$15.90 per share, compared with the last close of US$18.87, setting up a clear valuation gap to unpack.
The analysts have a consensus price target of $8.361 for Hecla Mining based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $12.5, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $6.5.
Curious how you get from today’s earnings to that higher fair value? Revenue resets, margin expansion, and a rich future P/E all sit at the core. The exact mix of growth, profitability and share count change is already mapped out. The full narrative lays out those moving parts in detail.
Result: Fair Value of $15.90 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, there are still real pressure points, including higher capital needs at Keno Hill and potential shareholder dilution from future asset sales or equity raises, that could unsettle this story.
Find out about the key risks to this Hecla Mining narrative.
Another View: SWS DCF Signals Undervaluation
The earlier narrative leans on analyst targets and future earnings multiples to argue Hecla Mining is 18.7% overvalued at US$18.87. Our DCF model lands in a very different place, with a fair value estimate of US$41.08 per share and the stock trading about 54% below that level. Which story do you think better reflects the risks and cash flows you care about most?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Hecla Mining for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 870 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Build Your Own Hecla Mining Narrative
If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply prefer your own process, you can build a custom view in minutes with Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Hecla Mining research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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