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    The Bull Case For Dropbox (DBX) Could Change Following Revenue Beat But Flat Growth And User Loss

    Simply Wall St·01/05/2026 13:10:34
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    • In its latest quarter, Dropbox reported US$634.4 million in revenue, slightly ahead of analyst expectations, but with flat year-on-year growth and a loss of 60,000 customers, ending the period with 18.07 million paying users.
    • This mix of better-than-expected revenue and shrinking customer numbers left Dropbox with the slowest revenue growth among its productivity software peers, highlighting ongoing pressure on its core business model.
    • We’ll now examine how the combination of revenue outperformance and shrinking customer numbers could influence Dropbox’s broader investment narrative.

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    Dropbox Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Dropbox, you need to believe it can offset a shrinking paying user base with higher monetization, new products and disciplined capital allocation. The latest quarter’s flat revenue, customer losses and post-earnings share price decline appear to reinforce, rather than change, the near term catalyst and main risk: whether Dropbox can stabilize its core storage business while new AI and workflow products start to matter more.

    The recent guidance raise, which lifted full year 2025 revenue expectations to a midpoint of US$2,511.0 million, sits awkwardly beside the slowdown in users and the company’s weakest growth among productivity peers. For investors focused on catalysts, this combination sharpens the focus on execution in AI products like Dash and on sustaining margins, despite competitive and pricing pressure in cloud storage.

    Yet while guidance is up, the risk that sustained user declines and pricing pressure could weigh on future earnings is something investors should be aware of...

    Read the full narrative on Dropbox (it's free!)

    Dropbox’s narrative projects $2.5 billion revenue and $494.6 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Dropbox's forecasts yield a $28.12 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    DBX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    DBX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$28.13 to an extreme US$25,709.96, showing just how far apart views can be. When you set those opinions against flat revenue, user losses and intense competition from large cloud suites, it becomes even more important to compare multiple perspectives on Dropbox’s longer term earnings potential.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Dropbox - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

    Build Your Own Dropbox Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.