UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Valuation Review As Profit Headwinds Meet Raised 2025 Earnings Outlook
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is back in focus after a tough 2025, with elevated medical costs, Medicare Advantage pressures, and suspended profit guidance now meeting management’s raised full-year earnings outlook and a closely watched January 27 update.
See our latest analysis for UnitedHealth Group.
Those cost headwinds and Medicare Advantage issues have already hit sentiment hard, with a roughly 34% decline in the 1 year total shareholder return. At the same time, the recent 7 day share price return of 2.27% and early 2026 gains hint at stabilising momentum ahead of the January 27 update.
If UnitedHealth’s recent swings have you reassessing your healthcare exposure, this could be a useful moment to scan other healthcare stocks that might fit your watchlist.
After a 33% 1 year total return decline, a value score of 5, and an indicated 60% intrinsic discount, the key question is simple: is this healthcare giant on sale, or is the market correctly pricing its future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 14.2% Undervalued
With UnitedHealth Group closing at US$336.40 against a narrative fair value of about US$392, the current pricing gap is drawing close attention.
Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from about $389 to approximately $392 per share, reflecting a modestly more constructive long term outlook.
The future P/E has risen slightly from about 20.0x to roughly 20.4x, suggesting a marginally higher multiple applied to forward earnings in the updated valuation.
Curious what supports that higher fair value? Revenue assumptions, margin tweaks and a richer earnings multiple all play a part, and the mix might surprise you.
Result: Fair Value of $392.24 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, there are still clear pressure points, including tougher Medicare Advantage economics and execution risks around the Optum restructuring that could challenge this recovery story.
Find out about the key risks to this UnitedHealth Group narrative.
Build Your Own UnitedHealth Group Narrative
If you are not fully on board with this view or prefer to rely on your own analysis, you can stress test the numbers yourself in just a few minutes and Do it your way
A great starting point for your UnitedHealth Group research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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