Trump's Venezuela Shockwave Could Tip Oil Markets — Energy ETFs Are On Alert

Oil ETFs directly tied to crude prices slipped on Monday, even as energy equity ETFs surged, underscoring a growing split between oil prices and oil stocks after the U.S. military intervened in Venezuela.

Crude-linked funds such as the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) and the United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSE:BNO) inched lower as futures dipped, with Brent trading near $61 a barrel.

In contrast, energy equity ETFs, including the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE), SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (NYSE:XOP) and Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSE:VDE), climbed more than 2%, as investors focused on the perceived boost to U.S. energy companies rather than near-term supply risks.

See Also: Trump’s Loyalty To ‘His Oil Company Cronies’ Kicked Off High Inflation, Mark Cuban Says

Parsing Venezuela Through Different Lenses

While the U.S.’s seizure of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro represents a major geopolitical move, Goldman Sachs warned that any recovery in Venezuelan oil output would likely be slow and partial, given degraded infrastructure and the need for substantial upstream investment, Bloomberg reported.

The bank left its 2026 oil price forecasts unchanged at $56 per barrel for Brent and $52 for West Texas Intermediate. Still, it said that potential increases in Venezuelan production beyond 2027 add to downside risks for long-term oil prices, especially when combined with recent production beats from the U.S. and Russia.

For energy equity ETFs, the immediate reaction reflects optimism around capital spending and U.S.-led rebuilding efforts.

President Donald Trump has said U.S. companies would invest billions of dollars to restore Venezuela's oil sector, a prospect that could benefit large U.S. energy firms that dominate broad sector funds like XLE and VDE.

Crude ETFs, by contrast, are more sensitive to changes in supply expectations and futures pricing. Even the possibility of additional long-term barrels can affect the forward curve, influencing funds such as USO and BNO that roll futures contracts.

Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves and, at one time, produced about 3 million barrels per day. Output has since fallen to under 1 million barrels a day, and any rebound would take years. Still, the episode introduces a new long-term question for oil markets: whether politically sidelined producers can return just as global supply is already expanding.

For now, energy ETFs are celebrating the equity upside, while oil ETFs are quietly eyeing the barrels.

Read Next:

• Why Venezuela’s Vast Oil Reserves Could Reshape US Energy Winners And Losers — Three Stocks To Watch

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