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    How Toyota’s Rising Electrified Vehicle Mix Will Impact Toyota Motor (TSE:7203) Investors

    Simply Wall St·01/05/2026 19:11:55
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    • In late 2025, Toyota Motor reported a 1.9% year-on-year decline in November global sales to 965,919 vehicles, but group volumes for the first eleven months still rose 4.8% to 10.33 billion units, with Japan rebounding after earlier production stoppages.
    • An important shift was that electrified vehicles climbed 11% to 4.56 million units over the same period, accounting for just over 47% of Toyota and Lexus global deliveries as the company invests in its own battery production while facing intensifying competition from Chinese EV makers.
    • Now we’ll explore how the rising share of electrified vehicles in Toyota’s sales mix may influence its existing investment narrative.

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    Toyota Motor Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Toyota Motor, you generally need to believe it can balance scale, profitability and a gradual shift to electrified drivetrains while managing intense global competition. The latest sales data shows softer November volumes but a growing share of electrified vehicles, which does not appear to materially change the near term focus on recovering production and defending margins in key markets such as China.

    The most relevant recent announcement here is Toyota’s reaffirmed full year FY2026 guidance alongside its emphasis on a multi pathway electrification strategy. Taken together with electrified vehicles now making up just over 47% of Toyota and Lexus deliveries, this highlights how internal battery investments and product mix are increasingly central to its near term earnings story.

    Yet against this progress, intensifying price competition in China remains a risk that investors should be aware of, especially as...

    Read the full narrative on Toyota Motor (it's free!)

    Toyota Motor's narrative projects ¥52,446.5 billion revenue and ¥3,866.3 billion earnings by 2028. This implies 3.0% yearly revenue growth but an earnings decrease of ¥898.8 billion from ¥4,765.1 billion today.

    Uncover how Toyota Motor's forecasts yield a ¥3515 fair value, a 3% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TSE:7203 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TSE:7203 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly ¥1,955 to ¥3,515 per share, showing how far apart individual views can be. When you set that against Toyota’s push to lift electrified vehicle margins and recover production, it underlines why many investors compare several different scenarios before forming an opinion on the company’s prospects.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Toyota Motor - why the stock might be worth as much as ¥3515!

    Build Your Own Toyota Motor Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.