After a year of continuous policy shocks, the US economy will be boosted by President Donald Trump's tax cuts to maintain its expansion momentum in 2026. Economists say that due to the impact of Trump's iconic tax cuts, American taxpayers will receive higher tax refunds in the first half of this year, with estimates of the total amount of additional tax rebates between 30 billion and 100 billion US dollars. Incentives for companies to invest in plant and equipment are also expected to drive growth, while lower interest rates and more stable trade policies will also help. However, forecasters believe there is still reason to be cautious. The consumer spending pulse brought about by Trump's fiscal stimulus is expected to weaken over time, and tariffs will continue to be a particularly significant drag on small businesses. Unemployment is rising, and so are concerns about affordability and inequality. The boom in artificial intelligence may not bring about the kind of widespread growth that its supporters promise, and the US attack on Venezuela has also shown the possibility of geopolitical instability. Taken together, economists expect the US economy to grow at 2% in 2026, which is the same as their forecast for 2025. This is likely enough for the US to continue to outperform its peers in advanced economies, although judging by US standards in the past, this rate is not that fast. “2026 will be a good year, neither hot nor recession, just steady trend growth,” said Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings.

After a year of continuous policy shocks, the US economy will be boosted by President Donald Trump's tax cuts to maintain its expansion momentum in 2026. Economists say that due to the impact of Trump's iconic tax cuts, American taxpayers will receive higher tax refunds in the first half of this year, with estimates of the total amount of additional tax rebates between 30 billion and 100 billion US dollars. Incentives for companies to invest in plant and equipment are also expected to drive growth, while lower interest rates and more stable trade policies will also help. However, forecasters believe there is still reason to be cautious. The consumer spending pulse brought about by Trump's fiscal stimulus is expected to weaken over time, and tariffs will continue to be a particularly significant drag on small businesses. Unemployment is rising, and so are concerns about affordability and inequality. The boom in artificial intelligence may not bring about the kind of widespread growth that its supporters promise, and the US attack on Venezuela has also shown the possibility of geopolitical instability. Taken together, economists expect the US economy to grow at 2% in 2026, which is the same as their forecast for 2025. This is likely enough for the US to continue to outperform its peers in advanced economies, although judging by US standards in the past, this rate is not that fast. “2026 will be a good year, neither hot nor recession, just steady trend growth,” said Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings.