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To own QXO today, you really have to believe in the acquisition story: that management can turn a loss-making, relatively young distribution platform into something meaningfully larger and more efficient by buying and integrating other building products distributors. The new US$1.15 billion Apollo and Franklin convertible preferred deal goes straight to the heart of that thesis, because the capital is explicitly tied to completing at least one “qualifying” acquisition by mid‑2026. In the near term, that boosts QXO’s funding capacity and may become the key catalyst investors focus on, alongside any signs that revenue growth is translating into a pathway toward profitability. At the same time, it adds fresh dilution risk on top of already heavy issuance, while QXO’s new board and management still have to prove they can execute a complex roll‑up at scale.
However, investors should be aware of the dilution and execution risks that come with this deal. Despite retreating, QXO's shares might still be trading above their fair value and there could be some more downside. Discover how much.Twelve members of the Simply Wall St Community have published fair value estimates for QXO that stretch from well under US$10 to more than US$70, highlighting how far opinions can diverge. Against that backdrop, the new Apollo‑led preferred financing ties much of QXO’s near term story to whether it can close and integrate sizable acquisitions using this US$1.15 billion pool of capital. Readers can compare these community views with their own assessment of that execution and dilution risk before forming a conviction.
Explore 12 other fair value estimates on QXO - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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