Omeros (OMER) drew fresh investor attention after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved YARTEMLEA for hematopoietic stem cell transplant associated thrombotic microangiopathy, and the company is preparing a U.S. launch and related reimbursement infrastructure.
See our latest analysis for Omeros.
The FDA approval appears to be the main backdrop for recent price action, with a 30 day share price return of 50.97% and a 90 day share price return of 268.92%. Meanwhile, the 1 year total shareholder return of 51.11% and the very large 3 year total shareholder return of around 5x suggest that longer term investors have already experienced substantial gains.
If developments like YARTEMLEA's approval have you looking across the sector, this could be a good moment to scan other healthcare stocks that might fit your watchlist next.
With YARTEMLEA now approved and a launch and reimbursement framework coming together, Omeros shares have already moved sharply. So is the current price still reflecting a discount, or are markets now fully pricing in future growth?
Our DCF model estimates a fair value of about $123.68 for Omeros, compared with the last close at $16.38, which implies a very wide discount in the current share price.
The SWS DCF model works by projecting a company’s future cash flows and then discounting those cash flows back to today using a required rate of return. This produces a single present value figure that can be compared with the current market price.
For a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company like Omeros, where reported revenue is currently $0 and the latest net result is a loss of $121.239m, a DCF framework places more weight on forecasts for future earnings and revenue than on today’s income statement. The model also incorporates the provided forecasts that revenue could grow rapidly and that earnings are expected to move from losses toward profitability over the coming years.
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Result: DCF Fair value of $123.68 (UNDERVALUED)
However, there are still clear risks here, including Omeros' current revenue of $0, its ongoing net loss of $121.239m, and uncertainty regarding future trials or commercialization.
Find out about the key risks to this Omeros narrative.
If you look at these numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply want to test your own assumptions, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Omeros research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
If Omeros has sharpened your focus, do not stop here, broaden your watchlist now so you are not looking back later wishing you had acted sooner.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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