Tom Lee Says Bitcoin Will Break From Its Four-Year Cycle In 2026 If It Hits $200,000-$250,000: 'There Are Tailwinds That Are Building'
Wall Street analyst Tom Lee said Monday that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could deviate from its typical four-year cycle if it reaches between $200,000 and $250,000 this year.
Will Bitcoin Break Its Four-Year Cycle?
Speaking to CNBC, Lee said that if Bitcoin follows the four-year cycle, its price should decline in 2026. However, a sharp rally instead would break that historical pattern.
“I think that there are tailwinds that are building,” the Fundstrat co-founder said, pointing out the leverage reset during the October 2025 crash.
He also mentioned continued institutional adoption and U.S. government support as contributing factors.
See Also: This Bitcoin Chart Signal Has 91% Accuracy, But Here’s Why It Could Be Different This Time
Some analysts Benzinga previously spoke with said that the traditional four-year cycle is now "breaking down," while others maintained it would remain “relevant” in 2026.
Will Bitcoin Follow Gold’s Rally?
Lee also tied Bitcoin’s prospects to gold and silver, predicting that the apex cryptocurrency would eventually “benefit” from that trade.
“It does look like gold rallies typically lead Bitcoin rallies. So I think it’s been healthy for gold to rally,” he argued.
However, not everyone was buying this narrative.
Economist and gold bug Peter Schiff argued that Bitcoin’s past rallies happened when gold moved sideways. He added that lately, gold has surged while Bitcoin tumbled, destroying the “fake” narrative.
Tom Lee’s Predictions
Lee's explanation comes in the context of his previous statements on the future of cryptocurrency. In early 2026, he predicted a 10% to 15% crypto pullback due to policy risks from the White House and the Federal Reserve.
Last year, controversy arose around contradictory signals being sent by Fundstrat's analysts on Bitcoin.
Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, indicated a base case where Bitcoin might retrace to the $60,000–$65,000 range in early 2026. Conversely, Lee’s comments suggested the apex cryptocurrency could reach new all-time highs.
Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $93,715.33, up 0.81% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Photo by Frame Stock Footage via Shutterstock
Read Next: