CITIC Securities: Optimistic about Zhi Spectrum (02513) leading the domestic GM model with a target market value of HK$53.9 billion
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that Zhi Spectrum (02513) is a leading domestic general model company. In the past two years, with Internet and technology companies as its core market, it has achieved rapid revenue growth of more than doubling. In the next 6 years, the domestic language model market may grow 20 times. Enterprise-level demand will dominate 100 billion opportunities. The company has a certain position advantage in related markets. The bank is optimistic that application implementation will continue to drive rapid growth in model demand. Relying on excellent model capabilities, the company will continue to open up the enterprise market, drive revenue to maintain rapid growth, and give the company 30 times PS in 2026, corresponding to a target market value of HK$53.9 billion.
CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:
Company Overview: A leading domestic general model company with top scientific resources. The company is committed to developing advanced GM models. It is the largest independent GM large model developer in China, covering 8,000+ customers and 45 million downloads from the global developer community. The company's main management teams all have deep technical backgrounds, and the R&D team has resources of top scientists, including Academician Zhang Yi. In 2024, the company's revenue was 312 million yuan, up 150.9% year on year, and 2025H1 revenue was 191 million yuan, up 325.0% year on year. The 2025H1 R&D cost was 1,595 billion yuan, of which 1,145 billion yuan was invested in computing power. The gross margin of the local deployment business remains above 60%. With model performance support, the scale effect of the company's business may continue to be reflected.
Industry Overview: The market size of the big language model market may grow 20 times in the next 6 years. The enterprise level dominates 100 billion opportunities, and the company has a certain position advantage in the enterprise market. According to Frost & Sullivan's forecast (reprinted in the company's prospectus), China's major language model market will reach 5.3 billion yuan in 2024, and is expected to increase to 101.1 billion yuan by 2030, or 63.7% CAGR in 2024-2030. FrostSullivan estimates that by 2030, the market for large enterprise language models in China will reach 90.4 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 90% of the enterprise-side market. According to interviews with Frost & Sullivan and experts (reprinted to the company's prospectus), in terms of 2024 Big Language Model revenue, Smart Spectrum's market share is 6.6%, making it the largest independent big language model manufacturer.
Model capability: High cost performance, low illusion rate, comprehensive coverage of the diversified needs of enterprises, excellent GLM-4.7 code and agent capabilities. The company model covers the scale of parameters from end-side deployment (9B) to the flagship model (355B) to meet the usage needs of different enterprises. The company model has characteristics such as high cost performance and low illusion rate. According to the <> report published by Stanford University<2025年ai指数>, the test results of the Hughes Illusion Assessment Model (HHEM-2.1-open) showed that the company's GLM-4-9B model achieved one of the lowest illusion rates (1.3%) among the top models. The latest flagship model excels in coding and agents. The company recently released the GLM-4.7 model in December 2025 to refresh the domestic model code SOTA. Judging from the test set performance, the model reached the international advanced level in the fields of logical reasoning, code generation, screen recognition, etc. The gap was further narrowed compared to leading overseas models such as Gemini 3.0, and was recognized by enterprises on overseas platforms such as OpenRouter and Fireworks
Growth analysis: New products drive a gradual increase in the share of cloud deployments, and local deployment services expand into new industries. Currently, the company's local deployment revenue accounts for 85%, and the cloud share has increased from 0 to 15% in the past two years. The bank expects the share of cloud revenue to continue to increase in the medium term.
1) Local deployment business: The annual fee for a single customer exceeded 2 million yuan in 2024, doubling in the past two years. By industry, 50% of the company's revenue in 2024 comes from the Internet and technology industry. In the next six months, it plans to prioritize the consumer electronics and Internet of Things industries, and use model capabilities to enter high-entry industries such as education and healthcare in the medium term. The bank believes that along with the improvement of model capabilities, the accelerated implementation of applications in various fields, the company's local deployment business is expected to see a rapid simultaneous increase in the number of customers and customer unit prices.
2) Cloud business: New products such as GLM CodingPlan and AutoGLM have excellent performance. The latest GLM-4.7 ranks first in open source in Code Arena and LiveCodeBeach. 2025 will drive the company to rapidly increase the number of paid users worldwide. Referring to the company's official WeChat account information, the number of paying customers on the open platform BigModel.cn increased tenfold throughout the year, and cost-effective coding tools may have a greater impact on the company's cloud revenue in 2026.