CICC: Maintaining the Hesai-W (02525) “Outperforming the Industry” rating and upgrading the target price to HK$241.1
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report stating that it will keep the Hesai-W (02525) revenue forecast unchanged, raise the 2026 revenue forecast by 6.4% to 4.53 billion yuan, and introduce the 2027 revenue forecast of 6.0 billion yuan for the first time. Maintain an outperforming industry rating. Currently, Hong Kong and US stocks correspond to 6.0/5.8 times 2026 P/S, respectively. Considering the upward shift in the valuation center of the smart driving and robotics sectors, the bank raised the target price of Hong Kong/US stocks by 32.1%/34.3% to HK$241.10/31.56, respectively, corresponding 7.5 times P/S in 2026. There is 24.3%/30.1% of upward space compared to the current stock price, respectively.
CICC's main views are as follows:
The company's recent situation
In January 2026, Hesai Technology showcased the latest lidar technology achievements at CES 2026, and updated business conditions such as delivery volume, production capacity planning, and strategic cooperation.
Leading the industry in mass production delivery capacity; domestic and foreign production capacity is progressing steadily
The company delivered more than 1.6 million units for the full year of 2025. As of January 5, the company had obtained mass production targets for more than 120 models from 24 OEMs. The company plans to double its annual production capacity from 2 million units in 2025 to 4 million units in 2026. The company expects the Galileo plant in Bangkok, Thailand to be put into operation in early 2027. The bank believes that the company has plenty of orders in hand and is actively expanding production capacity at home and abroad, which is expected to drive a high increase in future shipments and revenue.
The L3 model has been approved by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the number of lidar bikes is expected to increase
On December 15, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved for the first time an L3 conditional autonomous vehicle pilot for road traffic in designated areas. The bank believes that L3 models may accelerate penetration, and the number of lidars mounted on bicycles is expected to increase to 3-6. 2026 models such as the Avita 12 and Rantu Taishan will all be equipped with 4 lidars as standard. At CES 2026, Hesai showcased a next-generation L3 vehicle lidar solution composed of an ultra-long-range lidar ETX and a pure solid-state close-range lidar FTX. It has already obtained the first target mass production target for passenger cars, and mass production is scheduled to begin in late 2026 or early 2027.
The next wave of physical AI such as Robotaxi and robots hit, and lidar became the key engine
Many companies around the world are speeding up the large-scale deployment of L4 autonomous driving fleets. The company has cooperated with leading companies such as Motional, Baidu, Didi, Wenyuan, and Xiaoma, and has been selected by Nvidia as a lidar partner for the “NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Hyperion 10 Platform”. In addition, Hesai JT series lidars are widely used in robotics and industrial markets, with a cumulative shipment volume of over 200,000 units, including MOVA (lawnmower robot), Vita Power (intelligent companion robot), etc.
Risk warning: Technology iteration risks, orders falling short of expectations, increased industry competition, and pressure on customers to reduce prices.