Zheshang Securities: Maintaining the Jitu Express - W (01519) “Buy” rating and continuing to increase the new market to create a second growth curve

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhishang Securities released a research report stating that it maintains the Jitu Express - W (01519) “buy” rating, considering that the company continues to maintain its competitive advantage in the Southeast Asian market. As volume grows, new market size advantages have emerged, and the Chinese market continues to expand cooperation with various e-commerce platforms.

The main views of Zheshang Securities are as follows:

25Q4 achieved an overall package volume of 8.46 billion pieces, an increase of 14.5% over the previous year, with an average daily package volume of 92 million

Southeast Asia market: In 25Q4, Jitu achieved 2.44 billion packages, an increase of 73.6% over the previous year, and an average daily volume of 26.5 million pieces, +73.6%. The company's business volume performance in Southeast Asia continues to be strong, mainly due to the traditional peak e-commerce season and the continuous increase in the overall online penetration rate in Southeast Asia. With a steady business strategy, Goku has an advantage in competition, and the local industry share continues to be concentrated in the lead.

New markets (including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Mexico, Brazil and Egypt): 25Q4 Polar Rabbit continued its strong growth rate since the previous quarter. The number of packages exceeded 100 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching 130 million units, up 79.7% year on year. The average daily package volume was 1.45 million, +79.7% year over year. Mainly because the company actively grasps e-commerce growth dividends to expand partnerships with e-commerce platforms such as TikTok and Mercado Libre.

Chinese market: 25Q4 achieved 5.89 billion packages, an average of 64 million parcels per day, in line with expectations. Since October, the growth rate of parcel volume in China's express delivery industry has slowed, falling below double digits in October, and the industry is shifting towards high-quality development.

In 2025, the company's total package volume broke through the 30 billion mark for the first time, reaching 30.13 billion pieces, up 22.2% year on year. The average daily package volume was 82.5 million, up 22.6% year on year

Southeast Asia: The annual volume of packages reached 7.66 billion, an increase of 67.8% over the previous year, with an average daily package volume of 21 million. As of 2025H1, Polar Rabbit's market share in Southeast Asia was 32.8%. Compared with 2024H1+5.4pct, it has had the largest market share in Southeast Asia for six consecutive years. As cooperation with e-commerce platforms such as TTS deepens and superimposes the company's operating advantages in Southeast Asia, the bank believes that the increase in Jitu's package volume in the Southeast Asian market is expected to continue to bring significant contributions to the group as a whole.

New market: The annual volume of packages reached 400 million, an increase of 43.6% over the previous year, with an average daily package volume of 1.1 million. Currently, the e-commerce penetration rate in the new market is low, the market pattern is scattered, and there is huge potential for growth. By replicating Southeast Asia's successful momentum, it is expected to become the second growth curve.

Chinese market: The annual volume of parcels reached 22.07 billion, an increase of 11.4% over the previous year, with an average daily volume of 60.5 million pieces. The overall volume growth rate of Polar Rabbit in the Chinese market is basically in sync with the industry. According to data from the State Post Office, the express delivery business volume will reach 214 billion units in 2026, an increase of about 8% over the previous year. Jitu is expected to continue to bring steady volume growth to the Group in the Chinese market.

Acquire the shares of two subsidiaries in the new market to accelerate the layout of the new market

The company announced on 12.28 that it plans to acquire about 36.99% of Jet Global's shares for US$950 million; after the transaction is completed, Jitu Express will hold 100% of JetGlobal's shares. It is planned to acquire about 46.55% of JNTExpress KSA's shares for US$106 million. After the transaction is completed, Jitu will fully own the Saudi business entity.

Jet Global (covering markets such as Brazil, Egypt, Mexico, etc.): Losses before tax were significantly narrower in 2024 than in 2023, with total assets and net liabilities of US$640 million and US$590 million respectively.

JNTExpress KSA (Saudi Division): Pre-tax (and post-tax) losses in 2024 improved significantly compared to 2023. The total asset value is US$86 million and the net asset value is US$37 million. The purchase consideration is approximately 6.15 times PB.

Both of these transactions are in fulfilment of historical investors' exit rights, marking that Jitu continues to improve its control over overseas business and enhance the Group's strategic control over major emerging markets. Individual businesses in core emerging markets continue to be optimized, and profitability is recovering. Through centralized holdings, Jitu can increase the integration of various aspects such as core resource export, network collaboration, and unified management of digital platforms, and strengthen its service capabilities for e-commerce in major emerging economies.

Risk Alerts

Economic downturn risks, industry growth is lower than expected, express delivery price war worsens, overseas business progress falls short of expectations