Dongwu Securities: Resonance between quantitative investment style and policy promotion direction focuses on four marginal changes in scenic area supermarkets
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that focusing on the four major marginal changes in tourist attractions & supermarkets — changes in equity & management & license & new economic models — the direction of consumption promotion from the top down is superimposed and conforms to the aesthetic characteristics of quantitative investment. Tourist attractions and supermarket department stores have more room for their potential investment value to be activated.
The main views of Dongwu Securities are as follows:
Asset characteristics of tourist attractions & supermarkets
Tourist attractions & supermarket department stores have heavy assets and high replacement costs, but their profit statement performance is not that strong. At the same time, they meet the two conditions of “high asset replacement value” but “low profit growth”. Their assets are quite special. On the other hand, most tourist attractions & supermarket department stores have a strong margin of asset safety.
Tourist attractions & supermarkets and department stores meet the aesthetic characteristics of quantitative investment
Some special characteristics of tourist attractions & supermarkets are considered by the bank to be in line with the aesthetic of quantitative investment, including: ① high replacement costs, higher actual value of assets, ② lower unit price of shares, ③ fewer institutional holdings, ④ the direction of continuous policy promotion. As a result, shares of tourist attractions & supermarket department stores often show greater flexibility, and their total profit capacity and trading volume are also large, and can accommodate a variety of strategies.
Profit statements aren't the only “fundamentals”
“Fundamentals” are generally regarded as “room for improvement or enhancement in the income statement,” but in reality, the assets of tourist attractions & supermarket department stores have actual revaluation value. This revaluation value is not reflected in the profit statement, but it is indeed also a fundamental aspect of the company's assets. In the past, the actual value of this asset revaluation was often reflected in actual equity transaction cases, such as Sanjiang Shopping, Yonghui Supermarket, etc.
The most direct implementation scenario for promoting the “service consumption” policy - tourist attractions & supermarkets
Since 2023, a number of top-down policies have continued to be issued to promote consumption. The policy position is high, reflecting the importance attached to the consumer industry from the top down. In addition to consumer vouchers & national supplements (the sustainability of this method is also a factor to be considered), the most direct way to promote consumption is to launch a new consumption model or new consumer brand, commonly known as the “launch economy”, to promote consumption through the “provision” method. The most direct scenario of implementation is in tourist attractions & supermarkets, such as supermarket ice and snow reform, ice and snow The economy, the low-altitude economy, is a typical initial economic model. This is also a scarce real scenario where the so-called “service consumption promotion policy” can actually be implemented.
Investment advice: Continue to pay attention to the four major marginal changes in tourist attractions & supermarkets: equity changes, management changes, license changes, and changes in the new economic model. Recommended: Guilin Travel, Hong Kong China Travel, Changbai Mountain, etc., follow the Three Gorges Travel, Tianfu Cultural Tourism, Ginza Co., Ltd.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuations, market competition risks, changes in consumer consumption habits, etc.