Zheshang Securities: Space computing power and commercial aerospace meet the singularity in 2026. It is recommended to focus on four major segments including space photovoltaics
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhishang Securities released a research report saying that the space data center industry has moved from technical verification to a commercial constellation deployment stage represented by Starcloud-1 and China's “three-body computing constellation.” According to estimates, after the completion of the first phase of the computing power constellation in 2027, it can directly drive the output value of the industrial chain to exceed several billion yuan, and the scale is expected to exceed trillion yuan in the long run. Within the next five years, major constellations plan to launch satellites one after another. The bank recommended focusing on four major segments: radiation cooling systems, space photovoltaic energy systems, radiation-resistant chip/server packaging, and interstellar laser communication.
The main views of Zheshang Securities are as follows:
1. Large-scale launches spawn an inflection point in the commercialization of space computing power
Starcloud estimates show that for building a data center of the same size, the 10-year core cost of the space program (about US$8.2 million) is only 5% of the terrestrial solution (about US$167 million). Its disruptive advantage is that it can fundamentally solve the energy consumption, heat dissipation, and land bottlenecks faced by terrestrial AI computing power using efficient solar energy in space and the natural vacuum radiation cooling environment. The industry has moved from technical verification to the commercial constellation deployment stage represented by Starcloud-1 and China's “three-body computing constellation.” According to the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission and the Zhongguancun Management Committee, after the completion of the first phase of the computing power constellation in 2027, it can directly drive the output value of the industrial chain to exceed several billion yuan, and the scale is expected to exceed trillion yuan in the long run.
2. The space environment promotes the reconstruction of the entire infrastructure chain
The traditional computing power infrastructure paradigm is liquid cooling/air cooling, utility power, switch network, and conventional computing power chips, while the space environment requires a new computing power infrastructure due to characteristics such as lack of heat dissipation medium, dependence on solar power generation, long communication distance between satellites, and radiation in the space environment. Focus on the four major segments of radiation cooling systems, space photovoltaic energy systems, radiation-resistant chip/server packaging, and interstellar laser communication.
3. The field of global low-orbit satellite networks has formed a competitive pattern led by the United States and fiercely contested by many countries.
Relying on companies such as SpaceX and Amazon, the United States has built a mature industrial ecosystem and continues to expand its constellation scale and technological advantages. Under the guidance of the national strategy, China is speeding up major projects such as GW and G60, and building a system to build a high-performance satellite Internet network covering the world, and is gradually narrowing the gap with the international advanced level.
4. Assuming that within the next five years, major constellations represented by SpaceX, G60, and GW will launch satellites one after another
Based on the launch plans and historical launch data of the main constellations, the bank calculated: assuming that the average payload of SpaceX and domestic launches is 28 or 10 satellites; the average number of rocket launches per year is expected to reach about 940 in the future. ITU requires that after applying for frequency and trajectory, the first star must be launched within 7 years, the total number of launches must reach 10% within 9 years, 50% of the total number of launches within 12 years, and the entire constellation must be launched within 14 years. Currently, GW and G60, the largest constellation networks deployed in the country, are in their infancy.
5. The “Falcon” and “Long March” series rockets drive the continuous growth of global space launch activities
The number of launches of the “Falcon” rocket increased from 6 in 2014 to 134 in 2024; the number of launches of the “Long March” series rockets also increased from 15 in 2014 to 49 in 2024. In 2024, China's commercial aerospace achieved 33 commercial launches throughout the year, accounting for 49% of the total domestic volume, an increase of 27% over the previous year. A launch vehicle mainly consists of three parts: a structural system, a power unit system (propulsion system), and a control system. The propulsion system and arrow structure account for a relatively high proportion of the rocket cost; the two links in the first level account for about 77.8%, and the two links in the second stage account for about 58.1%. Rocket recyclable technology reduces costs. SpaceX Falcon 9 achieved first-stage rocket recycling and reuse, fairing recycling and reuse; the launch cost was reduced from 50 million US dollars to 15 million US dollars for the reused rocket
Risk Alerts
1. Satellite launches fall short of expectations; 2. Commercialization falls short of expectations; 3. Technological iteration falls short of expectations; 4. Policy implementation falls short of expectations.