Cathay Pacific Haitong: The growth rate of express delivery volume is slowing down, and internal volume is helping to recover profits
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that in November 2025, the volume of express deliveries across the industry was +5% year-on-year, continuing to maintain a single-digit growth rate. Industry share concentration is slowing down. Zhongtong/Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong 25q3 net interest rates were -0.9/+0.07/-1.5/+0.5pct year-on-year, and +4.8/+0.5/-0.07/+0.6pct, respectively. Leading companies have generally recovered their profitability, and it is expected that the Q4 profit recovery trend will continue. Considering the good results achieved in this round and the positive feedback effect of express delivery companies after recovering profits, it is expected that the anti-domestic roll policy will continue to ensure healthy competition and profitability in the industry on the basis that the volume continues to grow steadily.
Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:
The growth rate of express delivery volume fell to single digits in Q4, and the peak price of Double Eleven continued to smooth
In November 2025, the volume of express deliveries across the industry was +5% year-on-year, continuing to maintain a single-digit growth rate. In the past, the two young items were an important driver for maintaining a relatively rapid growth in the volume of goods. Since July 2025, express delivery has effectively promoted price recovery in the e-commerce express delivery industry, speculated or influenced the growth trend of small and light goods, and improved the quality of express delivery demand. Among them, the number of items during the e-commerce Double Eleven promotion period was +9%, which slowed down from the 21% average daily volume growth rate of the 2024 promotion, or due to the first sharp extension of the big promotion in 2024, which led to a high base, and the 2025 big promotion started one step ahead of schedule, causing the volume to move forward.
The average daily volume of the big promotion was 1.18 times that of daily sales. The peak volume in a single day was +6.6%, all narrowing for three consecutive years, reflecting that the marginal effect of the big promotion on consumption continued to weaken. Behind that, daily promotions and live streaming delivery continued to disperse consumption, and that the trade-in policy over the past year dispersed the consumption of large items of concentrated household appliances in the past, which also caused express delivery price increases to less than previous years.
Anti-internal rollback execution is strong and effective, share concentration is slowing down and profitability is beginning to recover
Anti-internal volume effectively increased single ticket revenue: Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong's November single ticket revenue increased by 0.16/0.25/0.44 yuan compared to July.
Industry share concentration is slowing down under internal scrutiny: the industry CR8 in November was 86.9, the same as in September. Among them, Zhongtong/Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong/Jitu 25Q3 market shares were 19.4%/15.6%/13.0%/13.2%/11.3%, respectively, -0.1/-0.4/-0.2/+0.2pct. Yuantong's share has rebounded slightly since 25Q4, reflecting that with the company's full AI link empowerment and infrastructure upgrades, volume recovery is faster than the industry. Through the acquisition of Danniao Logistics, Shentong's share rose to third place in the industry, and continued to rise in November.
Anti-internal roll drives profitability repair: Zhongtong/Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong 25q3 net interest rates were -0.9/+0.07/-1.5/+0.5pct year over year, and +4.8/+0.5/-0.07/+0.6pct, respectively. Leading companies generally achieved profitability restoration. It is expected that the Q4 profit repair trend will continue. The sustainability of future profitability repair depends on the continuity of the express delivery industry's anti-internal roll policy.
Express delivery has been effective in fighting internal circulation. It is recommended to pay attention to the strength of supervision and the trend of corporate competition strategies
In 2021, the express delivery industry implemented an anti-domestic investigation and achieved a double restoration of e-commerce express performance valuation, thanks to the joint promotion of the Post Administration's efforts to guarantee network stability, the firm profit recovery goals of leading companies, and policies to protect the rights and interests of couriers. This round of anti-internal scrutiny was initiated by the State Post Office stressing clear opposition to “internal roll” competition. The local post administration vigorously promoted supervision by “locking prices” and “locking shares”. The core grain-producing regions took the lead in effectively raising prices, and then gradually spread to other key regions.
Cathay Pacific Haitong believes that considering the good results achieved in this round and the positive feedback effects of express delivery companies after recovering profits, it is expected that the anti-domestic roll policy will continue, ensuring that healthy competition and profitability in the industry continue to recover on the basis of continued steady growth in volume. Future proposals focus on the strength of anti-domestic surveillance in the industry and trends in corporate competition strategies.
Investment advice
Maintain the courier holdings increase rating. The reverse internal roll drives the profit recovery of e-commerce express delivery, and recommends leading companies, Zhongtong Express, and Jitu Express, which has improved domestic profits and a high increase in overseas shipments. SF Express has activated its operating mechanism to continue to outperform its peers in component volume growth. Short-term performance fluctuations are mainly due to the company's proactive market expansion strategy and necessary long-term strategic investment. It is expected that the future will show results as the company's cost control is strengthened. It is recommended to focus on the timing of the bottom layout of the time-sensitive express delivery leader. Maintain the increase in holdings of Zhongtong Express-W (02057), Jitu Express-W (01519), and SF Holdings (002352.SZ,06936).
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