• EN

    • -+ 0.00%
    -+ 0.00%
    -+ 0.00%

    Will Analyst Downgrades and HOKA Concerns Change Deckers Outdoor's (DECK) Growth Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·01/08/2026 07:26:32
    Listen to the news
    • In recent days, Deckers Outdoor has faced several analyst downgrades, with concerns focused on moderating growth at its HOKA brand and the impact of increased discounting across sales channels.
    • Despite reporting past quarters with topline growth and profitability gains from UGG and HOKA, analysts now question whether HOKA’s potential market size and pricing power are being overestimated.
    • We’ll now examine how worries over HOKA’s slowing momentum and rising discounting pressure may affect Deckers Outdoor’s existing investment narrative.

    Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

    Deckers Outdoor Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Deckers Outdoor today, you need to believe that UGG and HOKA can remain resilient brands even as growth cools and discounting rises. Recent downgrades sharpen the focus on HOKA’s near term sales trajectory and pricing power, making the key short term catalyst the brand’s ability to hold full price sell through, while the biggest risk is that heavier promotions permanently dilute margins and brand equity.

    The latest Q2 fiscal 2026 report, which showed 9.1% net sales growth and profitability gains from both UGG and HOKA, sits in tension with the more cautious analyst tone. For investors, this combination of solid reported results and more guarded revenue guidance brings the discounting trend and its impact on Deckers’ direct to consumer strategy and wholesale relationships into sharper focus when weighing the near term setup.

    But before getting comfortable with that story, investors should also consider how rising HOKA discounting could...

    Read the full narrative on Deckers Outdoor (it's free!)

    Deckers Outdoor's narrative projects $6.5 billion revenue and $1.1 billion earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Deckers Outdoor's forecasts yield a $111.40 fair value, a 8% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    DECK 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    DECK 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Eighteen members of the Simply Wall St Community currently place Deckers’ fair value between US$75.82 and US$158, with several clustered around the low US$100s. Against this wide range of views, concerns about a more promotional environment and its effect on HOKA’s gross margins are an important counterpoint that could shape how the company performs from here, so it is worth comparing multiple perspectives before deciding where you stand.

    Explore 18 other fair value estimates on Deckers Outdoor - why the stock might be worth as much as 53% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Deckers Outdoor Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    • A great starting point for your Deckers Outdoor research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free Deckers Outdoor research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Deckers Outdoor's overall financial health at a glance.

    Looking For Alternative Opportunities?

    Early movers are already taking notice. See the stocks they're targeting before they've flown the coop:

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.