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Analyst Divyang Shah said that the commodities sector will launch capital adjustments related to index balance on Thursday. The two widely used benchmark indices will be weighted, which in turn will force funds tracking these indices to adjust their positions accordingly. The current market estimate consensus is as follows: ① The index weight of gold and silver will be reduced, and the total sell-off related to position adjustments that may be triggered exceeds 11 billion US dollars, and some estimates are even as high as 14 billion US dollars. Compared to open positions, the scale of the adjustment for gold is basically the same as in previous years, but the scale of the adjustment for silver is expected to account for about 10% of the total amount of unclosed positions in all contracts. ② The index weight of crude oil will be raised, which may trigger a total of about 5 to 6 billion US dollars in position adjustments and purchases. This scale is reported to be slightly higher than in previous years. ③ Among soft commodities, sugar and cocoa are outstanding, and the size of purchases is expected to account for about 5-6% and 23-25% of their outstanding positions, respectively. Although the index rebalancing began on Thursday, the entire adjustment process will be completed between the 5th and 9th trading days of January and will last 5 trading days. Specifically, it will end on January 14.

Zhitongcaijing·01/08/2026 08:25:04
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Analyst Divyang Shah said that the commodities sector will launch capital adjustments related to index balance on Thursday. The two widely used benchmark indices will be weighted, which in turn will force funds tracking these indices to adjust their positions accordingly. The current market estimate consensus is as follows: ① The index weight of gold and silver will be reduced, and the total sell-off related to position adjustments that may be triggered exceeds 11 billion US dollars, and some estimates are even as high as 14 billion US dollars. Compared to open positions, the scale of the adjustment for gold is basically the same as in previous years, but the scale of the adjustment for silver is expected to account for about 10% of the total amount of unclosed positions in all contracts. ② The index weight of crude oil will be raised, which may trigger a total of about 5 to 6 billion US dollars in position adjustments and purchases. This scale is reported to be slightly higher than in previous years. ③ Among soft commodities, sugar and cocoa are outstanding, and the size of purchases is expected to account for about 5-6% and 23-25% of their outstanding positions, respectively. Although the index rebalancing began on Thursday, the entire adjustment process will be completed between the 5th and 9th trading days of January and will last 5 trading days. Specifically, it will end on January 14.