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Markets bet on whether Ali Khamenei will leave Supreme Leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027

Barchart·01/08/2026 03:38:21
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Kalshi has reported 128,108 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Ali Khamenei leave Supreme Leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 53% chance for "Ali Khamenei", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 53% probability.

If Ali Khamenei has either officially announced their intention to leave as Supreme Leader of Iran or has actually left Supreme Leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 631,305 transactions since it was first opened on November 11, 2025. There are 461,484 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 63,990,091 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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