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    Does Trump’s US$1.5 Trillion Defense Budget Proposal Reshape The Bull Case For Gates Industrial (GTES)?

    Simply Wall St·01/08/2026 22:28:32
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    • In recent days, investors rotated into defensive and industrial names after former President Trump called for a very large proposed US$1.50 trillion U.S. defense budget for 2027, lifting sentiment toward engineered components suppliers such as Gates Industrial.
    • This shift highlights how expectations for higher government defense spending can improve investor interest in companies supplying critical engineered systems across multiple industrial end markets.
    • We’ll now examine how heightened interest in defense-related government spending could influence Gates Industrial’s existing investment narrative and risk profile.

    Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

    Gates Industrial Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Gates Industrial, you need to believe in its ability to convert engineered systems expertise into resilient cash flows across cyclical industrial and automotive end markets. The recent defense-spending headlines gave the stock a short-term sentiment boost, but they do not materially change the key near term story: execution on higher growth niches like data center cooling remains the main catalyst, while ongoing softness in core OEM and construction markets is still the biggest risk.

    The most relevant recent update here is Gates’ launch of its Data Master Eco liquid cooling solution for hyperscale and AI data centers, which builds on its earlier Data Master MegaFlex introduction. This reinforces the data center cooling theme that many investors see as a potential offset to weaker traditional industrial demand, even as management’s 2025 guidance still reflects a very modest core revenue growth outlook.

    But while new cooling products may help, investors should be aware that...

    Read the full narrative on Gates Industrial (it's free!)

    Gates Industrial's narrative projects $3.8 billion revenue and $395.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.2% yearly revenue growth and about a $191.9 million earnings increase from $203.5 million today.

    Uncover how Gates Industrial's forecasts yield a $27.84 fair value, a 28% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    GTES 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    GTES 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    One member of the Simply Wall St Community values Gates Industrial at US$27.84, showing how a single detailed view can differ from current pricing. You can compare that with the ongoing risk that prolonged weakness in industrial OEM and construction demand could limit how much any defense related optimism ultimately supports the business.

    Explore another fair value estimate on Gates Industrial - why the stock might be worth just $27.84!

    Build Your Own Gates Industrial Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.