Odds Trump Is Forced To Refund Tariffs Drop Sharply As Supreme Court Justice Warns Of Legal Complexity

Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson poured cold water on hopes that courts could force President Donald Trump to refund his recently imposed tariffs, telling a CBS program on Tuesday that any legal challenge would face “lots of nuanced legal issues.”

Jackson suggested the timeline for any ruling could stretch considerably given the constitutional complexity.

Prediction market traders took notice immediately.

Odds on Polymarket that Trump will be forced to refund tariffs have crashed to just 28%, down from a 39% high last week.

The Polymarket contract expires on June 30.

Jackson's comments signal that the Court is in no rush. With the Justices currently in recess until Feb. 20, the window for a decision, let alone the logistical nightmare of issuing refunds. is closing fast.

Trump has said that an unfavorable ruling could cost the U.S. “hundreds of billions’, or even “trillions“.

What Stocks Could Be Affected?

Trump’s tariff package targeting China, Mexico and the European Union has hammered supply chain-dependent stocks. Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) remain highly sensitive to any tariff developments given their manufacturing exposure.

Best Buy (NYSE:BBY): The electronics giant slashed its 2026 guidance specifically citing tariff costs. A refund would have been a direct hit to the bottom line; that windfall is now off the table for the first half of the year.

Target (NYSE:TGT): While Target has diversified its supply chain, it remains heavily exposed to Chinese imports for home goods and electronics. The delay forces them to maintain higher pricing structures rather than banking on a rebate.

Toyota (NYSE:TM) and Honda (NYSE:HMC): Both automakers rely on integrated North American supply chains. The tariffs on parts crossing the Mexican border are a “material drag” on earnings.

General Motors (NYSE:GM): While domestic, GM imports significant components from Mexico. The delay in overturning these specific “Liberation Day” tariffs keeps input costs elevated through Q2.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT): A forced refund of billions in tariffs could blown a hole in the federal budget, likely forcing more debt issuance and spiking yields. The “No Refund” signal is ironically bullish for bonds (and TLT) as it keeps that revenue in the Treasury’s pocket.

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