Where Will NuScale Power Stock Be in 5 Years?

NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) stock has benefited from positive tailwinds surrounding the nuclear energy industry and taken investors for a roller-coaster ride. Last year, the stock peaked at $57 per share, but since then it has fallen 70%.

NuScale is an early-stage small modular reactor company that will likely continue to experience significant price swings in the coming years as it establishes its business and operating model. For investors considering an investment in the nuclear energy company, here's what to watch for over the next five years.

NuScale Power has its work cut out for it over the next few years

NuScale is in its early stages, and one of the most important things it needs to do is secure firm contract agreements. The company has entered into some high-profile partnerships, but many are non-binding or memoranda of understanding (MOU) that lack firm commitments.

For example, NuScale's RoPower project in Romania aims to deploy six NuScale Power Modules. It is the company's only active major project since its Carbon Free Power Project in Idaho was cancelled in 2023 due to ballooning costs. Shareholders of Romanian nuclear operator Nuclearelectrica (which is a joint owner in RoPower) have approved the Final Investment Decision (FID), on the condition that it would test one 77MW reactor first, then move forward with the final five units if the trial is successful.

The FID is a big step forward for NuScale; however, the facility likely won't be operational until at least July 2033, a pushback from its original 2030 timeline.

The company also has an MOU with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) through its partnership with ENTRA1 Energy. As part of this agreement, NuScale would develop up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of capacity for the TVA. Again, this agreement is non-binding, but it has triggered significant financial liabilities under its Partnership Milestones Agreement (PMA) with ENTRA1. In the third quarter, NuScale took an expense of $495 million related to this.

On top of this, NuScale needs to establish a manufacturing supply chain and demonstrate that it can produce its NuScale Power Modules at scale in a factory setting. Building out these facilities will require significant capital, and management has noted that total payments for large projects could exceed billions of dollars before operations begin.

NuScale is a risky, early-stage company

NuScale faces competition from up-and-coming companies and more established competitors. Oklo is an upstart company that uses liquid-metal cooling and plans to run on recycled nuclear fuel. Meanwhile, GE Vernova is more established and has its GE Hitachi BWRX-300, which was selected by the TVA for its Clinch River site, and is further along than NuScale's project with the TVA.

NuScale Power has its work cut out for it. It still needs to lock in firm commitments for its technology, and even then, it will take several years before it has commercial operations. While its technology is intriguing and could change the way nuclear power is deployed, it is still years away from operating. For that reason, most investors are best off avoiding the stock for now.

Courtney Carlsen has positions in GE Vernova. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends GE Vernova. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.