Flutter Plunges 14.5% On Revenue Miss As Prediction Market Threat Grows
Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) has lost over half its value in the past year as prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket carve into the U.S. sports betting pie.
On Thursday, the FanDuel parent company reported 2025 revenue of $16.4 billion, missing its own $16.7 billion forecast. Furthermore, Flutter projected 2026 sales of $18.4 billion, falling significantly short of Wall Street's $19.3 billion expectation. DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG), FanDuel's main competitor, similarly disappointed earlier this month.
Despite the market reaction, Flutter CEO Peter Jackson downplayed the emerging threat, claiming prediction markets would only dent sportsbook growth by “low single digits.” Instead, he blamed unfavorable sports results in Q4 for users pulling back after losses.
Sports betting rival PENN Entertainment Inc (NASDAQ:PENN) took a sharply different stance than Flutter on its Q4 call. CEO Jay Snowden described prediction markets’ legal status as “really as clear as mud” and said the issue “can’t get in front of the U.S. Supreme Court fast enough.”
Highlighting the escalating legal battles, Snowden noted, “You’ve got regulators and attorneys general that are suing prediction markets. You have the prediction markets that are suing regulators and trying to beat them to the punch.”
He had previously called prediction markets “a major threat to the industry” in November, warning the issue was “existential.”
At the heart of the conflict is a regulatory gray area: prediction markets argue that their Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight preempts state gambling laws, allowing them to operate where traditional sports betting is banned. States and tribal groups are aggressively fighting back in cases that may eventually reach the Supreme Court.
Industry leaders remain divided on how to adapt. While Flutter partnered with CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CME) to launch FanDuel Predicts in December, others are keeping their distance. Churchill Downs Inc. (NASDAQ:CHDN) CEO Bill Carstanjen, for example, firmly stated his company won’t touch prediction markets with its racing content.
Ultimately, the roughly 50% drawdowns this year in both FLUT and DKNG suggest that the market believes this threat is real, even if CEOs are split on how to handle it.
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