'The Regime Sure Did Change,' Says Pete Hegseth About Iran—But Do Prediction Markets Agree?

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered a defiant message Monday morning, saying, “turns out the regime who chanted ‘Death to America’ and ‘Death to Israel’ was gifted death from America and death from Israel,” Hegseth said at a Pentagon briefing.

“This is not a so-called regime-change war, but the regime sure did change, and the world is better off for it,” he added.

The United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran over the weekend, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering retaliatory missile and drone strikes across Israel, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) surged 5% premarket. Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC) jumped 5%.

Brent Oil hit $79 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) both climbed sharply on supply fears.

What Prediction Markets Say Happens Next

Traders on Polymarket don’t expect this to end soon.

A ceasefire by March 15 sits at 26% probability, with March 31 at 46%.

When pressed on the timeline, Hegseth wouldn’t commit: "President Trump has all the latitude in the world to talk about how long it may or may not take: four weeks, two weeks, six weeks, it could move up. It could move back,"

The odds of US military entering Iran by December 31 is 38%. For this market, special operations forces qualify; intelligence operatives don’t.

The Strait of Hormuz closing before the end of the month is at 43%. About 20% of global oil transits the waterway.

Exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi entering ran by June 30 sits at 27%, with December 31 at 39%.

Traders on Polymarket do expect an eventual nuclear deal to be signed, but not in the short term. Before the end of the month is priced at 15%, by June 30th at 42% and by the end of the year at 59%.

The Polymarket for regime change in Iran sits at 22% for the end of the month, and 52% by the end of the year. Whether Iran gets a new governing system, or follows the Venezuelan playbook of regime continuance sits on a knife edge.

Hegseth pushed back on comparisons to Iraq. “This is not endless. Our generation knows better, and so does this president,” he said.

The mission: “Destroy Iranian missiles, destroy Iranian missile production, destroy their navy and other security infrastructure, and they will never have nuclear weapons.”

Four US service members have been killed, with Trump warning Sunday there will “likely be more.” Iran’s Red Crescent reported over 555 deaths from the strikes.

Norwegian energy giant Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) has climbed 9% as oil supply fears spread. With Polymarket giving just 8% odds to a ceasefire by March 6, defense and energy tickers look positioned to run.

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